Spread: Texans (-5.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (67%) · Browns at 55¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Texans46¢Browns54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 67%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$13.9

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 54.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texans46%

Browns55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares8,609

Combined PnL-$154.03

Browns6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,531

Combined PnL+$140.13

Texans — 33%Browns — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBrowns 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Texansavg 47.2¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$140	65% 22-12 (34)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Brownsavg 52¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$96.12	48% 720-766 (1486)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Brownsavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$14.48	51% 3932-3722 (7654)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texansavg 47.8¢	$288.73	$274.91	-$13.82	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
HO HomeRunHazard	Brownsavg 52¢	$244.19	$253.58	+$9.39	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
rafaleaoo	Brownsavg 51¢	$122.82	$130.04	+$7.22	6% 42-659 (701)
VeryLucky888	Brownsavg 50¢	$210	$49.61	+$12.92	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Brownsavg 54¢	$14.04	$14.04	+$0	52% 419-387 (806)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texansavg 48¢	$3.36	$3.15	-$0.21	50% 2174-2194 (4368)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Texans

Invested

$3,780

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$140

Record

65%

22-12 (34)

Multicoloured-Serf

Browns

Invested

$2,499

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$96.12

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Browns

Invested

$1,564.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$14.48

Record

51%

3932-3722 (7654)

38791873984189CTR

Texans

Invested

$288.73

Value

$274.91

PnL

-$13.82

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

HomeRunHazard

Browns

Invested

$244.19

Value

$253.58

PnL

+$9.39

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

rafaleaoo

Browns

Invested

$122.82

Value

$130.04

PnL

+$7.22

Record

42-659 (701)

VeryLucky888

Browns

Invested

$210

Value

$49.61

PnL

+$12.92

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Browns

Invested

$14.04

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Browns

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBrowns 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.