Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Packers (96%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Packers (-7.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (50%) · Patriots at 3.7¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Packers96¢Patriots4¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$82.81

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 3.7¢

-92% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers96%

Patriots4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots6 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares17,378

Combined PnL-$254.11

Packers6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,726

Combined PnL+$336.92

Patriots — 50%Packers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPackers 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TKD44CTR	Patriotsavg 49¢	$8.1K	$7.9K	-$248.54	49% 183-193 (376)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Packersavg 51.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$87.56	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
JU justaluckydude	Packersavg 87.4¢	$685.34	$754.86	+$69.51	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
AN Anon455	Packersavg 43.7¢	$313.83	$489.51	+$175.68	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 46.1¢	$410.37	$255.33	+$0.55	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Patriotsavg 49¢	$220.41	$104.69	-$3.31	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Patriotsavg 48.8¢	$192	$60.25	-$4.17	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 48.8¢	$37.12	$36.1	-$1.02
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 59.3¢	$27.3	$24.15	-$3.15
BI biying88888<$100	Packersavg 51¢	$23.17	$23.85	+$0.68	47% 242-270 (512)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Packersavg 17¢	$9.79	$13.31	+$3.52	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 51.6¢	$24.01	$11.4	-$0.99	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 56¢	$17.74	$8.43	-$1.51	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 49.1¢	$11.86	$5.52	-$0.31	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Packersavg 54¢	$1	$0.97	-$0.03	45% 462-569 (1031)

TKD44CTR

Patriots

Invested

$8,120.32

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$248.54

Record

49%

183-193 (376)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Packers

Invested

$1,221.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$87.56

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

justaluckydude

Packers

Invested

$685.34

Value

$754.86

PnL

+$69.51

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Anon455

Packers

Invested

$313.83

Value

$489.51

PnL

+$175.68

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$410.37

Value

$255.33

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Patriots

Invested

$220.41

Value

$104.69

PnL

-$3.31

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

Pan9XARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$192

Value

$60.25

PnL

-$4.17

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Both legs:

Patriots$37.1248.8¢-$1.02

Packers$27.359.3¢-$3.15

biying88888<$100

Packers

Invested

$23.17

Value

$23.85

PnL

+$0.68

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Packers

Invested

$9.79

Value

$13.31

PnL

+$3.52

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$24.01

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$0.99

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$17.74

Value

$8.43

PnL

-$1.51

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

LimousinCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$11.86

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$0.31

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Packers

Invested

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPackers 55% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.9%

3.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1930.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

2030.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.