Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Packers (75%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Packers (-6.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (77%) · Patriots at 26¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8

Packers75¢Patriots25¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 25.5¢

-44% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Packers75%

Patriots26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,994

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Patriots10 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares32,500

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Packers — 23%Patriots — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPatriots 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Packersavg 54.1¢	$2.6K	$3.7K	+$1.0K	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
RN1CTR	Patriotsavg 50.1¢	$5.6K	$2.8K	$-2.7K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
CM cm2897CTR	Patriotsavg 42.5¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$150.18	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
AN Anon455CTR	Patriotsavg 43¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	-$980.31	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Patriotsavg 47¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	-$966.73	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
BI biying88888CTR	Patriotsavg 42.1¢	$896.37	$903.98	+$7.61	47% 242-270 (512)
38 38791873984189	Packersavg 46.5¢	$497.34	$758.91	+$262.92	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Patriotsavg 41.4¢	$554.61	$342.67	-$211.94	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Patriotsavg 44.4¢	$482.38	$277.04	-$205.34	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Patriotsavg 56¢	$224.76	$182.22	-$42.54	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 56¢	$184.12	$131.45	-$52.69
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 48¢	$40.62	$50.77	+$10.15
LI LimousinARB<$100	Patriotsavg 43¢	$129.81	$65.07	+$24.15	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 21¢	$14.21	$39.61	+$25.39
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 43¢	$26.69	$25.46	-$1.24
PA Pan9X	Packersavg 47.4¢	$169.87	$52.87	+$6.25	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 42¢	$63.55	$22.56	-$4.13	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 49¢	$5	$1.73	-$0.73	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 43¢	$1	$0.99	-$0.01	45% 462-569 (1031)

justaluckydude

Packers

Invested

$2,638.94

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

RN1CTR

Patriots

Invested

$5,580.17

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

cm2897CTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,523.78

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$150.18

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

Anon455CTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,715.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$980.31

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,112.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$966.73

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

biying88888CTR

Patriots

Invested

$896.37

Value

$903.98

PnL

+$7.61

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

38791873984189

Packers

Invested

$497.34

Value

$758.91

PnL

+$262.92

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Patriots

Invested

$554.61

Value

$342.67

PnL

-$211.94

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

6512395314597884CTR

Patriots

Invested

$482.38

Value

$277.04

PnL

-$205.34

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$224.76

Value

$182.22

PnL

-$42.54

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

Both legs:

Patriots$184.1256¢-$52.69

Packers$40.6248¢+$10.15

LimousinARB<$100

Patriots

Invested

$129.81

Value

$65.07

PnL

+$24.15

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Both legs:

Packers$14.2121¢+$25.39

Patriots$26.6943¢-$1.24

Pan9X

Packers

Invested

$169.87

Value

$52.87

PnL

+$6.25

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$63.55

Value

$22.56

PnL

-$4.13

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.73

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Patriots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatriots 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPatriots 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Patriots 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.