Spread: Packers (-16.5)

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (83%) · Packers at 96¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

Packers96¢Patriots4¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 83%

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 96¢

+30% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers96%

Patriots4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers15 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares17,485

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Patriots3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares11,483

Combined PnL$-5.7K

Packers — 83%Patriots — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Packersavg 91.1¢	$7.1K	$7.3K	+$215.8	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
RN1	Packersavg 57¢	$3.0K	$4.9K	+$2.0K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
AN Anon455	Packersavg 75.5¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$220	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 63.4¢	$7.1K	$1.6K	$-5.6K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
38 38791873984189	Packersavg 64.1¢	$721.5	$1.1K	+$334.85	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Packersavg 63¢	$358.77	$481.51	+$122.74	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Packersavg 68.9¢	$158.93	$220.13	+$61.2	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
CM cm2897	Packersavg 48.3¢	$125.61	$160.07	+$34.46	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
dips.	Packersavg 71.6¢	$98.15	$130.84	+$32.69	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
PA Pan9X	Packersavg 69.3¢	$83.86	$115.55	+$31.69	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Packersavg 3¢	$65	$67.5	+$2.5	53% 14337-12646 (26983)
LI Limousin<$100	Packersavg 45¢	$25.86	$46.26	+$20.4	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
MA MadridTime<$100	Packersavg 45¢	$26.7	$43.61	+$16.91	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
SH shiifoo<$100	Packersavg 65.7¢	$22.99	$33.25	+$10.26	48% 5145-5670 (10815)
US User7429<$100	Packersavg 65¢	$10.88	$15.99	+$5.11	56% 10315-8130 (18445)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Patriotsavg 57.7¢	$128.31	$10	-$118.3	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
QI qidao001<$100	Packersavg 35.9¢	$6.28	$9.83	-$0.52	84% 1390-257 (1647)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 35¢	$5.25	$0.67	-$4.58	57% 24691-18283 (42974)

primm

Packers

Invested

$7,065.85

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$215.8

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

RN1

Packers

Invested

$2,957.16

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Anon455

Packers

Invested

$1,510

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$220

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$7,132.54

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

38791873984189

Packers

Invested

$721.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$334.85

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Packers

Invested

$358.77

Value

$481.51

PnL

+$122.74

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Packers

Invested

$158.93

Value

$220.13

PnL

+$61.2

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

cm2897

Packers

Invested

$125.61

Value

$160.07

PnL

+$34.46

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

dips.

Packers

Invested

$98.15

Value

$130.84

PnL

+$32.69

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

Pan9X

Packers

Invested

$83.86

Value

$115.55

PnL

+$31.69

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

BoomLaLa<$100

Packers

Invested

$65

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

Limousin<$100

Packers

Invested

$25.86

Value

$46.26

PnL

+$20.4

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

MadridTime<$100

Packers

Invested

$26.7

Value

$43.61

PnL

+$16.91

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

shiifoo<$100

Packers

Invested

$22.99

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$10.26

Record

48%

5145-5670 (10815)

User7429<$100

Packers

Invested

$10.88

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$5.11

Record

56%

10315-8130 (18445)

justaluckydudeCTR

Patriots

Invested

$128.31

Value

$10

PnL

-$118.3

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

qidao001<$100

Packers

Invested

$6.28

Value

$9.83

PnL

-$0.52

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$5.25

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$4.58

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

15 of 18 top traders (83%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.