Spread: Lions (-6.5)

11 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (42%) · Lions at 53¢ · $137K held · ended Nov 8

Lions53¢Dolphins47¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 42%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$137.2K

Combined PnL

$9.3K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 52.5¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

11 of 26 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions53%

Dolphins48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions11 traders

Total Value$78.7K

Total Shares129,741

Combined PnL+$12.8K

Dolphins15 traders

Total Value$49.6K

Total Shares108,649

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Lions — 42%Dolphins — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Lionsavg 50.3¢	$59.1K	$71.2K	+$12.0K	49% 507-531 (1038)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Dolphinsavg 49.6¢	$16.1K	$12.8K	$-3.3K	47% 563-640 (1203)
nigiri99CTR	Dolphinsavg 41.5¢	$12.5K	$12.5K	-$4.7	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Dolphinsavg 50.1¢	$5.6K	$9.6K	-$99.61	51% 1024-996 (2020)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Dolphinsavg 47¢	$5.8K	$6.2K	+$430.96	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
BO Bozos14CTR	Dolphinsavg 49¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$49.82	50% 155-155 (310)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lionsavg 49.8¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$197.68	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 49.8¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$506.38
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$308.7
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 47.7¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$94.12	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 47.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$7.02
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 55.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$87.1
PR primm	Lionsavg 53.7¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$349.65	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
JU justwins	Lionsavg 50¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$382.88	49% 195-202 (397)
BI biying88888CTR	Dolphinsavg 44.6¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$179.67	48% 219-239 (458)
RN1ARB<$100	Lionsavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.72	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 52¢	$968.28	$977.59	+$9.31
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 47.4¢	$311.21	$311.63	+$0.41
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$943.4	$754.72	-$188.68	45% 211-253 (464)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Dolphinsavg 47¢	$859.41	$731.77	-$127.63	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
65 6512395314597884	Lionsavg 53.9¢	$570.79	$637.61	+$66.82	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
NM NM-P	Lionsavg 49.9¢	$416.91	$465.97	-$33.55	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Dolphinsavg 45.5¢	$455	$400	-$55	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
GC GC-P	Lionsavg 62¢	$407.37	$390.03	-$17.34	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Lionsavg 50¢	$200	$206	+$6	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
SH shovelingdigging	Lionsavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	65% 451-247 (698)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Dolphinsavg 45.7¢	$123.84	$107.01	-$16.82	53% 13621-12019 (25640)
0xheavy888CTR	Dolphinsavg 49.5¢	$110.88	$90.72	-$20.16	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 46.2¢	$115.38	$70.62	+$13.19	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 46.4¢	$30.89	$39.65	+$15.88
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 46.2¢	$35.29	$30.97	-$2.69
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 43¢	$44.48	$41.38	-$3.1	56% 681-529 (1210)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 47.7¢	$43.32	$36.31	-$7.01	54% 677-566 (1243)

Multicoloured-Serf

Lions

Invested

$59,102.71

Value

$71.2K

PnL

+$12.0K

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$16,061.35

Value

$12.8K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

47%

563-640 (1203)

nigiri99CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$12,470.1

Value

$12.5K

PnL

-$4.7

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$5,598.15

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$99.61

Record

51%

1024-996 (2020)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$5,786.99

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$430.96

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Bozos14CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$4,882.66

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$49.82

Record

50%

155-155 (310)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$4,027.55

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$197.68

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Lions$2,299.5249.8¢+$506.38

Dolphins$1,47050¢-$308.7

Anon455ARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$3,756.2

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$94.12

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

Dolphins$2,079.0547.7¢-$7.02

Lions$1,677.1555.4¢-$87.1

primm

Lions

Invested

$2,957.32

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$349.65

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

justwins

Lions

Invested

$1,914.4

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$382.88

Record

49%

195-202 (397)

biying88888CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,577.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$179.67

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

RN1ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$1,279.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.72

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Both legs:

Lions$968.2852¢+$9.31

Dolphins$311.2147.4¢+$0.41

glennyorkshireCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$943.4

Value

$754.72

PnL

-$188.68

Record

45%

211-253 (464)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$859.41

Value

$731.77

PnL

-$127.63

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

6512395314597884

Lions

Invested

$570.79

Value

$637.61

PnL

+$66.82

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

NM-P

Lions

Invested

$416.91

Value

$465.97

PnL

-$33.55

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$455

Value

$400

PnL

-$55

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

GC-P

Lions

Invested

$407.37

Value

$390.03

PnL

-$17.34

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Lions

Invested

$200

Value

$206

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

shovelingdigging

Lions

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

65%

451-247 (698)

justaluckydudeCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$123.84

Value

$107.01

PnL

-$16.82

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

0xheavy888CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$110.88

Value

$90.72

PnL

-$20.16

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Pan9XARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$115.38

Value

$70.62

PnL

+$13.19

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Both legs:

Lions$30.8946.4¢+$15.88

Dolphins$35.2946.2¢-$2.69

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$44.48

Value

$41.38

PnL

-$3.1

Record

56%

681-529 (1210)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$43.32

Value

$36.31

PnL

-$7.01

Record

54%

677-566 (1243)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lions

11 of 26 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.