Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Lions (64%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lions (-4.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (30%) · Dolphins at 37¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8

Lions64¢Dolphins36¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 36.5¢

-24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions64%

Dolphins37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins3 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares17,698

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Lions7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,892

Combined PnL+$510.83

Dolphins — 30%Lions — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Dolphinsavg 49.7¢	$6.8K	$4.7K	$-1.9K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
PR primmARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$6.3K	$3.0K	-$241.19	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$145.83
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 60¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$95.36
65 6512395314597884	Lionsavg 49.3¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$411.23	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
BI biying88888CTR	Dolphinsavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$122.49	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Lionsavg 52¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	+$30.05	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Lionsavg 57¢	$844.64	$822.41	-$22.23	47% 564-647 (1211)
AN Anon455CTR	Dolphinsavg 47¢	$820.15	$636.93	-$183.23	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
38 38791873984189	Lionsavg 48.3¢	$301.68	$183.3	+$91.62	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Dolphinsavg 35.3¢	$98.55	$78.47	+$16.84	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 50.9¢	$33.57	$41.91	+$9.07
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 35.3¢	$35.34	$36.56	+$7.77
RN1	Lionsavg 56¢	$111.26	$60.51	-$0.33	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
CM cm2897<$100	Lionsavg 52¢	$50.44	$50.93	+$0.49	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 59¢	$1.0K	$1	+$0.01	57% 17052-13027 (30079)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$6,759.1

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

primmARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$6,285.66

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$241.19

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

Both legs:

Dolphins$2,00048¢-$145.83

Lions$1,271.460¢-$95.36

6512395314597884

Lions

Invested

$1,528.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$411.23

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

biying88888CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,116.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$122.49

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Lions

Invested

$2,003

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.05

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Lions

Invested

$844.64

Value

$822.41

PnL

-$22.23

Record

47%

564-647 (1211)

Anon455CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$820.15

Value

$636.93

PnL

-$183.23

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

38791873984189

Lions

Invested

$301.68

Value

$183.3

PnL

+$91.62

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9XARB<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$98.55

Value

$78.47

PnL

+$16.84

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

Lions$33.5750.9¢+$9.07

Dolphins$35.3435.3¢+$7.77

RN1

Lions

Invested

$111.26

Value

$60.51

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

cm2897<$100

Lions

Invested

$50.44

Value

$50.93

PnL

+$0.49

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$1,000

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.