Spread: Lions (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (67%) · Lions at 83¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Lions83¢Dolphins17¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 67%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$48.53

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 83¢

+36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lions83%

Dolphins17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,345

Combined PnL+$815.77

Dolphins3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,223

Combined PnL-$767.23

Lions — 67%Dolphins — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Lionsavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$430.82	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
RN1	Lionsavg 60.2¢	$644.26	$872.79	+$228.53	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Dolphinsavg 37.2¢	$1.5K	$746.51	-$753.41	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
65 6512395314597884	Lionsavg 62.6¢	$440.09	$585.65	+$145.56	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 65¢	$500	$335	+$10	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
PR primmCTR	Dolphinsavg 34.6¢	$820	$266.5	-$17.5	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
38 38791873984189CTR	Dolphinsavg 31¢	$121.37	$125.05	+$3.68	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Lionsavg 65¢	$40	$26.8	+$0.8	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 67¢	$29.58	$22.73	+$0.05	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

Anon455

Lions

Invested

$1,203.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$430.82

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

RN1

Lions

Invested

$644.26

Value

$872.79

PnL

+$228.53

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,499.92

Value

$746.51

PnL

-$753.41

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

6512395314597884

Lions

Invested

$440.09

Value

$585.65

PnL

+$145.56

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$500

Value

$335

PnL

+$10

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

primmCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$820

Value

$266.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

38791873984189CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$121.37

Value

$125.05

PnL

+$3.68

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Lions

Invested

$40

Value

$26.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$29.58

Value

$22.73

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.