Spread: Lions (-13.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (67%) · Dolphins at 79¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

Lions21¢Dolphins79¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.4K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 79¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions21%

Dolphins79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins6 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares20,224

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Lions3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares9,843

Combined PnL-$7.12

Dolphins — 67%Lions — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDolphins 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Dolphinsavg 60.6¢	$14.3K	$10.7K	+$2.0K	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Lionsavg 33¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$3.21	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1	Dolphinsavg 73.4¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$191.93	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
AN Anon455	Dolphinsavg 65.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$20	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
65 6512395314597884	Dolphinsavg 60.7¢	$234.02	$304.44	+$70.42	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Lionsavg 28.6¢	$165.2	$68.35	+$4.33	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
└ Dolphins leg	Dolphinsavg 61¢	$31.49	$37.68	+$6.19
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 28.6¢	$32.53	$30.67	-$1.87
PA Pan9X<$100	Dolphinsavg 64.7¢	$46.32	$38.44	+$4.42	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Dolphinsavg 74.6¢	$38	$28.31	-$0.05	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Lionsavg 22¢	$9.46	$9.03	-$0.43	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Lionsavg 37¢	$10.73	$7.25	-$3.48	50% 2563-2606 (5169)

primm

Dolphins

Invested

$14,312

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Lions

Invested

$3,227.49

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$3.21

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1

Dolphins

Invested

$2,527.64

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$191.93

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Anon455

Dolphins

Invested

$1,310

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$20

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

6512395314597884

Dolphins

Invested

$234.02

Value

$304.44

PnL

+$70.42

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$165.2

Value

$68.35

PnL

+$4.33

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Both legs:

Dolphins$31.4961¢+$6.19

Lions$32.5328.6¢-$1.87

Pan9X<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$46.32

Value

$38.44

PnL

+$4.42

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$38

Value

$28.31

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$9.46

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$0.43

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

cm2897CTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$10.73

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$3.48

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDolphins 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.