Broncos vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 60¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.1K

Combined PnL

-$199.87

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 59.5¢

+22% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over12 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares27,678

Combined PnL-$81.6

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares11,144

Combined PnL-$118.27

Over — 71%Under — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Overavg 50.7¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$24.98	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 47.1¢	$4.1K	$3.6K	-$525.83	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$44.34	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 54.5¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$159.72	48% 233-252 (485)
LooksMaxing101	Overavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30	51% 907-870 (1777)
RN1	Overavg 45¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	+$153	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$12.87	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
AN Anon455	Overavg 45¢	$904.2	$1.2K	+$312.45	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$2.0K	$989.63	+$29.88	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.6¢	$654.12	$701.14	+$46.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.9¢	$305.51	$288.49	-$17.04
0xheavy888	Overavg 51¢	$573.75	$556.88	-$16.88	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$500	+$0	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$245	$252.5	+$7.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$255	$247.5	-$7.5
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$775.91	$386.83	-$3.36	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$255	$247.5	-$7.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$135.2	$139.33	+$4.14
SE sentrio	Overavg 51¢	$203.91	$188.81	-$15.1	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 41.8¢	$111.11	$162.32	+$51.21	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$34.15	$31.36	-$2.79	54% 3880-3246 (7126)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 45¢	$39.8	$19.9	+$1.99	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$13.21	$13.13	-$0.08	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 52¢	$20.75	$10.38	-$0.41	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$13	$6.51	-$0.02	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 47¢	$0.92	$1.01	+$0.09	50% 48547-48163 (96710)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$3,820.5

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$24.98

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$4,113.37

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$525.83

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$3,472.16

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$44.34

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$2,187.8

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$159.72

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

LooksMaxing101

Over

Invested

$1,530

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

907-870 (1777)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,550

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$153

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$1,260.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.87

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$904.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$312.45

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,963.54

Value

$989.63

PnL

+$29.88

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Over$654.1247.6¢+$46.92

Under$305.5151.9¢-$17.04

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$573.75

Value

$556.88

PnL

-$16.88

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

Invested

$775.91

Value

$386.83

PnL

-$3.36

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

Invested

$203.91

Value

$188.81

PnL

-$15.1

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$111.11

Value

$162.32

PnL

+$51.21

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.15

Value

$31.36

PnL

-$2.79

Record

54%

3880-3246 (7126)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$39.8

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$1.99

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.21

Value

$13.13

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$20.75

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$0.41

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13

Value

$6.51

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.