Spread: Broncos (-6.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (58%) · Panthers at 61¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Broncos40¢Panthers60¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$146.04

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 60.5¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos40%

Panthers61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares8,653

Combined PnL+$379.03

Broncos5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,865

Combined PnL-$232.99

Panthers — 58%Broncos — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPanthers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Panthersavg 46¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$561.88	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
RN1ARB<$100	Broncosavg 54¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$740.39	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 67.6¢	$850.14	$1.1K	+$212.87
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 54¢	$1.3K	$383.78	-$953.26
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Broncosavg 42.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$35.59	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
38 38791873984189	Panthersavg 62.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$34.59	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Panthersavg 67¢	$670	$585	-$85	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
SU SunlineTicker	Panthersavg 65¢	$325.11	$283.43	-$41.68	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
65 6512395314597884	Panthersavg 62.3¢	$149.6	$145.2	-$4.4	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Broncosavg 47.4¢	$149.2	$124.43	-$24.77	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
PA Pan9X	Panthersavg 67.2¢	$135.69	$109.1	-$17.78	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
AN Anon455CTR	Broncosavg 54¢	$216.54	$42.11	-$174.44	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Broncosavg 35¢	$19.25	$36.03	+$16.78	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
BI biying88888CTR	Broncosavg 40¢	$116.8	$30.66	-$86.14	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Panthersavg 59¢	$23.6	$24.2	+$0.6	53% 3744-3342 (7086)

cm2897

Panthers

Invested

$2,067.7

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$561.88

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

RN1ARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$2,187.18

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$740.39

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Panthers$850.1467.6¢+$212.87

Broncos$1,337.0454¢-$953.26

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Broncos

Invested

$1,199.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$35.59

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

38791873984189

Panthers

Invested

$1,187.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.59

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Panthers

Invested

$670

Value

$585

PnL

-$85

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

SunlineTicker

Panthers

Invested

$325.11

Value

$283.43

PnL

-$41.68

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

6512395314597884

Panthers

Invested

$149.6

Value

$145.2

PnL

-$4.4

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

justaluckydudeCTR

Broncos

Invested

$149.2

Value

$124.43

PnL

-$24.77

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Pan9X

Panthers

Invested

$135.69

Value

$109.1

PnL

-$17.78

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Anon455CTR

Broncos

Invested

$216.54

Value

$42.11

PnL

-$174.44

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$19.25

Value

$36.03

PnL

+$16.78

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

biying88888CTR

Broncos

Invested

$116.8

Value

$30.66

PnL

-$86.14

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Panthers

Invested

$23.6

Value

$24.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPanthers 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.