Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Broncos, while the market favors Panthers (53%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Broncos (-1.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Broncos (42%) · Broncos at 48¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8

Broncos48¢Panthers52¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Broncos

Consensus Traders

Broncos 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

$4.7K

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 47.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos48%

Panthers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos5 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares13,830

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Panthers7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares12,226

Combined PnL+$772.1

Broncos — 42%Panthers — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBroncos 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrPanthers 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Broncosavg 55.8¢	$7.4K	$11.2K	+$3.8K	49% 516-547 (1063)
38 38791873984189	Panthersavg 44.1¢	$4.1K	$4.4K	+$618.37	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
RN1ARB<$100	Broncosavg 65¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$413.33	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 65¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$384.83
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 54¢	$1.0K	$997.5	-$28.5
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Panthersavg 80¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$526.65	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 80¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$550
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 46¢	$716.22	$739.57	+$23.35
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Panthersavg 34.9¢	$806.89	$1.2K	+$408.08	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
nigiri99CTR	Broncosavg 57¢	$165.3	$240.7	+$75.4	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Broncosavg 80¢	$123.85	$103.41	+$4.33	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
NM NM-P	Panthersavg 44¢	$500	$80	-$140	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-P	Panthersavg 44¢	$82.5	$80	-$2.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Panthersavg 43¢	$400	$66	-$106	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Broncosavg 57¢	$77	$65.07	+$21.18	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Broncosavg 56.6¢	$40.13	$43.78	-$5.65	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
LI LightParadox	Panthersavg 20¢	$123.85	$19.82	-$4.95	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
MA MadridTime<$100	Panthersavg 20¢	$20	$3.1	-$0.9	47% 2072-2311 (4383)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Broncos

Invested

$7,413.92

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

38791873984189

Panthers

Invested

$4,123.78

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$618.37

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

RN1ARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$2,455.35

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$413.33

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Broncos$1,429.3565¢-$384.83

Panthers$1,02654¢-$28.5

Anon455ARB<$100

Panthers

Invested

$2,316.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$526.65

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Panthers$1,60080¢-$550

Broncos$716.2246¢+$23.35

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Panthers

Invested

$806.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$408.08

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

nigiri99CTR

Broncos

Invested

$165.3

Value

$240.7

PnL

+$75.4

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Broncos

Invested

$123.85

Value

$103.41

PnL

+$4.33

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

NM-P

Panthers

Invested

$500

Value

$80

PnL

-$140

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-P

Panthers

Invested

$82.5

Value

$80

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Panthers

Invested

$400

Value

$66

PnL

-$106

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$77

Value

$65.07

PnL

+$21.18

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$40.13

Value

$43.78

PnL

-$5.65

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

LightParadox

Panthers

Invested

$123.85

Value

$19.82

PnL

-$4.95

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

MadridTime<$100

Panthers

Invested

$20

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Research grade

NeutralBroncos at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Broncos

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Broncos. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBroncos 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrPanthers 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Broncos wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.