Cowboys vs. Colts: O/U 46.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (62%) · Over at 58¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 8

Over58¢Under42¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 62%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$478.25

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 58¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares15,507

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares13,241

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 62%Under — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 46.3¢	$4.0K	$5.1K	+$1.2K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 41.1¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$8.26	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
AN Anon455	Overavg 59.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$11.94	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 55¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$490.32	48% 233-252 (485)
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 62¢	$1.6K	$1.0K	-$555.38	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 45¢	$501.78	$652.32	+$150.53	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 56.7¢	$626.95	$640.9	+$13.95	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 49¢	$490	$600	+$110	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 42.9¢	$263.52	$356.52	+$93	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PR primmCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$82	$84	+$2	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 67¢	$4.69	$5.29	+$0.6	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$2.68	$2.1	-$0.58	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$1.68	$1.79	+$0.11	50% 48547-48163 (96710)

RN1

Over

Invested

$3,954.72

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$2,864.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$8.26

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$1,849.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$11.94

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,997.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$490.32

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$1,565.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$555.38

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$501.78

Value

$652.32

PnL

+$150.53

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$626.95

Value

$640.9

PnL

+$13.95

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$600

PnL

+$110

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$263.52

Value

$356.52

PnL

+$93

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

primmCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82

Value

$84

PnL

+$2

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$4.69

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$0.6

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$2.68

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 58%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.