Spread: Saints (-7.5)

8 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (38%) · Browns at 69¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 8

Saints32¢Browns68¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

-$27.79

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 68.5¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

8 of 21 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints32%

Browns69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns8 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares22,289

Combined PnL+$820.78

Saints13 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares23,545

Combined PnL-$848.57

Browns — 38%Saints — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrBrowns 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 57% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Brownsavg 67.8¢	$6.4K	$6.7K	+$251.71	51% 6914-6557 (13471)
LooksMaxing101	Brownsavg 61¢	$5.0K	$3.0K	-$25	51% 907-870 (1777)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Brownsavg 46¢	$4.7K	$2.7K	+$585.41	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Saintsavg 54¢	$6.7K	$2.7K	-$905.61	51% 1024-996 (2020)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Saintsavg 39¢	$5.0K	$2.0K	+$75	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Saintsavg 28.4¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$66.31	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
DA darkumbreon88	Brownsavg 64¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$3.64	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
RN1CTR	Saintsavg 40¢	$984.8	$677.05	-$307.75	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Brownsavg 70.4¢	$639.46	$650.42	+$10.96	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 70.4¢	$498.33	$506.46	+$8.12
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 27.9¢	$141.13	$143.96	+$2.83
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Saintsavg 40¢	$465.81	$463.72	-$2.09	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 55¢	$225.81	$295.72	+$69.91
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 40¢	$240	$168	-$72
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Saintsavg 36¢	$281.01	$394.4	+$113.39	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
nigiri99CTR	Saintsavg 36¢	$324	$373.5	+$49.5	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Saintsavg 22¢	$147.26	$193.21	+$45.95	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 22¢	$112.21	$142.81	+$30.6
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 50.1¢	$35.05	$50.4	+$15.35
VE VenusianCTR	Saintsavg 36¢	$340.42	$137.87	+$15.32	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
LI LimousinCTR	Saintsavg 36¢	$86.21	$131.75	+$45.54	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
38 38791873984189CTR	Saintsavg 32.7¢	$120.33	$91.89	-$17.52	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Saintsavg 36¢	$212.58	$86.1	+$9.57	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Saintsavg 36¢	$189.22	$76.64	+$8.52	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Brownsavg 70¢	$56.31	$47.86	-$8.45	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
PA Pan9X<$100	Brownsavg 48.8¢	$34.12	$29.69	+$6.97	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
AN Anon455<$100	Brownsavg 46.3¢	$20.35	$27.47	+$7.12	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Saintsavg 54¢	$24.47	$22.27	-$2.2	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
PR primmCTR<$100	Saintsavg 37¢	$39.13	$15.85	+$1.37	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
GH ghorrock<$100	Brownsavg 75.6¢	$11.46	$10.83	-$0.63	57% 24661-18268 (42929)

CUTJALENHURTS

Browns

Invested

$6,432.98

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$251.71

Record

51%

6914-6557 (13471)

LooksMaxing101

Browns

Invested

$5,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$25

Record

51%

907-870 (1777)

ferrariChampions2026

Browns

Invested

$4,683.27

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$585.41

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Saints

Invested

$6,708.27

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$905.61

Record

51%

1024-996 (2020)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Saints

Invested

$5,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Saints

Invested

$1,699.86

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$66.31

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

darkumbreon88

Browns

Invested

$1,753.71

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$3.64

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

RN1CTR

Saints

Invested

$984.8

Value

$677.05

PnL

-$307.75

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$639.46

Value

$650.42

PnL

+$10.96

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Both legs:

Browns$498.3370.4¢+$8.12

Saints$141.1327.9¢+$2.83

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$465.81

Value

$463.72

PnL

-$2.09

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Browns$225.8155¢+$69.91

Saints$24040¢-$72

SunlineTickerCTR

Saints

Invested

$281.01

Value

$394.4

PnL

+$113.39

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

nigiri99CTR

Saints

Invested

$324

Value

$373.5

PnL

+$49.5

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$147.26

Value

$193.21

PnL

+$45.95

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Both legs:

Saints$112.2122¢+$30.6

Browns$35.0550.1¢+$15.35

VenusianCTR

Saints

Invested

$340.42

Value

$137.87

PnL

+$15.32

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

LimousinCTR

Saints

Invested

$86.21

Value

$131.75

PnL

+$45.54

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

38791873984189CTR

Saints

Invested

$120.33

Value

$91.89

PnL

-$17.52

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

LightParadoxCTR

Saints

Invested

$212.58

Value

$86.1

PnL

+$9.57

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

MadridTimeCTR

Saints

Invested

$189.22

Value

$76.64

PnL

+$8.52

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Oddstorm<$100

Browns

Invested

$56.31

Value

$47.86

PnL

-$8.45

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

Pan9X<$100

Browns

Invested

$34.12

Value

$29.69

PnL

+$6.97

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Anon455<$100

Browns

Invested

$20.35

Value

$27.47

PnL

+$7.12

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

RLWGCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$24.47

Value

$22.27

PnL

-$2.2

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

primmCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$39.13

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$1.37

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

ghorrock<$100

Browns

Invested

$11.46

Value

$10.83

PnL

-$0.63

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

8 of 21 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrBrowns 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 57% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.