Spread: Saints (-4.5)

15 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (56%) · Browns at 65¢ · $70K held · ended Nov 8

Saints35¢Browns65¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$69.7K

Combined PnL

$8.4K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 65¢

+25% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

15 of 27 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints35%

Browns65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns15 traders

Total Value$42.2K

Total Shares68,456

Combined PnL+$7.2K

Saints12 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares46,960

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Browns — 56%Saints — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrBrowns 50% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 60% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Brownsavg 49.1¢	$22.6K	$21.0K	+$5.9K	46% 232-268 (500)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Saintsavg 51.5¢	$15.1K	$8.1K	+$303.75	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Brownsavg 59.2¢	$7.3K	$8.0K	+$746.87	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Saintsavg 47¢	$5.9K	$6.7K	+$814.27	49% 516-547 (1063)
PL pleasent242	Brownsavg 53¢	$6.6K	$6.0K	-$625	52% 716-665 (1381)
VeryLucky888CTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$7.5K	$3.7K	-$112.5	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
nigiri99CTR	Saintsavg 51.6¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$41.08	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 49.9¢	$2.2K	$2.9K	+$688.02	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Saintsavg 50.5¢	$7.2K	$2.5K	-$252.14	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50.5¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$598.53
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 48.1¢	$853.86	$1.2K	+$346.39
BO Bozos14	Brownsavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$62.46	50% 155-156 (311)
RN1	Brownsavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$276.69	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Saintsavg 50.8¢	$801.38	$802.98	+$1.61	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Brownsavg 56.4¢	$627.42	$639.96	+$12.54	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 56.4¢	$397.77	$454.73	+$56.96
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 44¢	$229.65	$185.23	-$44.42
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$490.5	$594.05	+$103.55	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Saintsavg 31.1¢	$500.65	$554.59	+$53.94	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
JU justaluckydude	Brownsavg 55.6¢	$339.07	$399.62	+$60.55	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
NM NM-PCTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$520.44	$281.8	+$16.99	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-PCTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$500	$272.5	+$17.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
VE VenusianCTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$215.85	$222.03	+$6.18	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Brownsavg 52¢	$212	$202	-$10	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
AV averagejoetraders	Brownsavg 48¢	$97.2	$130.78	+$33.58	55% 681-557 (1238)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Brownsavg 49¢	$93.15	$122.71	+$29.57	53% 685-609 (1294)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Brownsavg 52.7¢	$71.15	$87.08	+$15.92	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
PA Pan9X<$100	Brownsavg 53.5¢	$95.79	$81.88	+$17.93	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
CM cm2897<$100	Brownsavg 54¢	$55	$65.69	+$10.69	50% 2563-2606 (5169)

glennyorkshire

Browns

Invested

$22,593.77

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

46%

232-268 (500)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Saints

Invested

$15,060.06

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$303.75

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Browns

Invested

$7,275.57

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$746.87

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Saints

Invested

$5,886.07

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$814.27

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

pleasent242

Browns

Invested

$6,625

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$625

Record

52%

716-665 (1381)

VeryLucky888CTR

Saints

Invested

$7,500

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$112.5

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

nigiri99CTR

Saints

Invested

$3,232.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$41.08

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Anon455

Browns

Invested

$2,198.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$688.02

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$7,162.29

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$252.14

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Saints$1,951.5950.5¢-$598.53

Browns$853.8648.1¢+$346.39

Bozos14

Browns

Invested

$1,530.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$62.46

Record

50%

155-156 (311)

RN1

Browns

Invested

$1,299.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$276.69

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

SnakeBallCTR

Saints

Invested

$801.38

Value

$802.98

PnL

+$1.61

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$627.42

Value

$639.96

PnL

+$12.54

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Browns$397.7756.4¢+$56.96

Saints$229.6544¢-$44.42

SunlineTickerCTR

Saints

Invested

$490.5

Value

$594.05

PnL

+$103.55

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Saints

Invested

$500.65

Value

$554.59

PnL

+$53.94

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

justaluckydude

Browns

Invested

$339.07

Value

$399.62

PnL

+$60.55

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

NM-PCTR

Saints

Invested

$520.44

Value

$281.8

PnL

+$16.99

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-PCTR

Saints

Invested

$500

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

VenusianCTR

Saints

Invested

$215.85

Value

$222.03

PnL

+$6.18

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Browns

Invested

$212

Value

$202

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

averagejoetraders

Browns

Invested

$97.2

Value

$130.78

PnL

+$33.58

Record

55%

681-557 (1238)

oxe78sh4w98

Browns

Invested

$93.15

Value

$122.71

PnL

+$29.57

Record

53%

685-609 (1294)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Browns

Invested

$71.15

Value

$87.08

PnL

+$15.92

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

Pan9X<$100

Browns

Invested

$95.79

Value

$81.88

PnL

+$17.93

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

cm2897<$100

Browns

Invested

$55

Value

$65.69

PnL

+$10.69

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

15 of 27 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrBrowns 50% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 60% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.