Bengals vs. Falcons: O/U 58.5

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (59%) · Under at 94¢ · $60K held · ended Nov 8

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.1K

Combined PnL

$16.2K

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 93.5¢

+70% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 17 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$45.0K

Total Shares52,224

Combined PnL+$16.2K

Over7 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares18,517

Combined PnL+$56.27

Under — 59%Over — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 56.5¢	$24.9K	$41.3K	+$16.3K	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
RN1CTR	Overavg 53¢	$12.5K	$6.8K	+$223.33	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 41.1¢	$15.2K	$2.9K	$-6.4K	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.1¢	$10.9K	$1.7K	$-9.2K
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.5¢	$509.06	$1.2K	+$2.8K
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 58.7¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$212.92	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
JO JokerTheClown	Underavg 44¢	$5.0K	$2.3K	+$75.01	44% 4193-5387 (9580)
SA SadSquid54333	Underavg 53¢	$2.8K	$1.3K	-$210.37	56% 191-149 (340)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 49¢	$800.28	$1.1K	+$318.06	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 45.1¢	$1.7K	$737.31	-$915.22	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.7¢	$280.97	$448.59	+$167.62
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.1¢	$1.4K	$288.72	$-1.1K
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 56.8¢	$1.2K	$265.75	-$11.2	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 46.2¢	$433	$205.12	-$14.7	53% 13621-12019 (25640)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.2¢	$158.47	$156.07	-$2.4
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.2¢	$61.34	$49.05	-$12.3
DR DreamwireCTR	Overavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$168.74	-$59.1	80% 4358-1077 (5435)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 44¢	$240.68	$35.56	-$205.13	50% 2562-2599 (5161)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 42¢	$63.67	$28.97	+$2.23	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$31.27	$26.85	-$4.42	48% 219-239 (458)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 42¢	$57.14	$24	+$0	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	Underavg 49¢	$46.82	$21.3	-$1.64	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 67¢	$31	$13.18	-$7.59	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$15	$8.18	+$3.23	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 28¢	$8.58	$3.86	+$1.19	53% 3670-3275 (6945)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 35¢	$6.48	$2.95	+$0.68	57% 17050-13014 (30064)

primm

Under

Invested

$24,945.43

Value

$41.3K

PnL

+$16.3K

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$12,470.85

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$223.33

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$15,238.03

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Both legs:

Over$10,875.8141.1¢$-9.2K

Under$509.0639.5¢+$2.8K

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$3,135.53

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$212.92

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

JokerTheClown

Under

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$75.01

Record

44%

4193-5387 (9580)

SadSquid54333

Under

Invested

$2,804.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$210.37

Record

56%

191-149 (340)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$800.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$318.06

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,652.53

Value

$737.31

PnL

-$915.22

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

Both legs:

Under$280.9756.7¢+$167.62

Over$1,371.5645.1¢$-1.1K

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,157.86

Value

$265.75

PnL

-$11.2

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$433

Value

$205.12

PnL

-$14.7

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

Both legs:

Under$158.4746.2¢-$2.4

Over$61.3468.2¢-$12.3

DreamwireCTR

Over

Invested

$1,227.84

Value

$168.74

PnL

-$59.1

Record

80%

4358-1077 (5435)

cm2897CTR

Over

Invested

$240.68

Value

$35.56

PnL

-$205.13

Record

50%

2562-2599 (5161)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$63.67

Value

$28.97

PnL

+$2.23

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$31.27

Value

$26.85

PnL

-$4.42

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$57.14

Value

$24

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

Under

Invested

$46.82

Value

$21.3

PnL

-$1.64

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$31

Value

$13.18

PnL

-$7.59

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$3.23

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$8.58

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

3670-3275 (6945)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$6.48

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.68

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 17 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.