Spread: Bengals (-10.5)

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (63%) · Bengals at 93¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 8

Bengals93¢Falcons7¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 63%

Total Value

$28.2K

Combined PnL

$9.4K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 92.5¢

+75% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals93%

Falcons8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals10 traders

Total Value$26.4K

Total Shares29,190

Combined PnL+$9.9K

Falcons6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,924

Combined PnL-$517.71

Bengals — 63%Falcons — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrFalcons 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bengalsavg 46.2¢	$10.9K	$18.1K	+$9.3K	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
AN Anon455	Bengalsavg 61.4¢	$3.3K	$5.2K	+$1.9K	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
RN1CTR	Falconsavg 52¢	$2.5K	$1.5K	+$259.04	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
65 6512395314597884	Bengalsavg 83.5¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$455.66	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
PR primm	Bengalsavg 64¢	$2.4K	$907.5	-$641.3	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
CM cm2897	Bengalsavg 100¢	$478.25	$300.93	-$177.32	50% 2562-2599 (5161)
38 38791873984189	Bengalsavg 71¢	$315.34	$298.19	-$17.15	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Bengalsavg 45.6¢	$690	$258.75	-$55.55	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Falconsavg 24¢	$114.58	$173.63	+$59.05	53% 13621-12019 (25640)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bengalsavg 50¢	$286	$107.25	-$35.75	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
GA Gaditima<$100	Bengalsavg 67.4¢	$68.27	$98.23	+$29.96	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bengalsavg 60.2¢	$42.9	$54.85	+$19.63	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
BI biying88888CTR	Falconsavg 45¢	$625.5	$41.7	-$583.8	48% 219-239 (458)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Falconsavg 48¢	$264.62	$16.54	-$248.08	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Falconsavg 11¢	$2.75	$0.75	-$2	53% 3670-3275 (6945)
dips.CTR<$100	Falconsavg 11¢	$2.64	$0.72	-$1.92	46% 12026-13917 (25943)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bengals

Invested

$10,906.07

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$9.3K

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Anon455

Bengals

Invested

$3,303.84

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

RN1CTR

Falcons

Invested

$2,467

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$259.04

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

6512395314597884

Bengals

Invested

$1,567.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$455.66

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

primm

Bengals

Invested

$2,420

Value

$907.5

PnL

-$641.3

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

cm2897

Bengals

Invested

$478.25

Value

$300.93

PnL

-$177.32

Record

50%

2562-2599 (5161)

38791873984189

Bengals

Invested

$315.34

Value

$298.19

PnL

-$17.15

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

ferrariChampions2026

Bengals

Invested

$690

Value

$258.75

PnL

-$55.55

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

justaluckydudeCTR

Falcons

Invested

$114.58

Value

$173.63

PnL

+$59.05

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bengals

Invested

$286

Value

$107.25

PnL

-$35.75

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

Gaditima<$100

Bengals

Invested

$68.27

Value

$98.23

PnL

+$29.96

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

Pan9X<$100

Bengals

Invested

$42.9

Value

$54.85

PnL

+$19.63

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

biying88888CTR

Falcons

Invested

$625.5

Value

$41.7

PnL

-$583.8

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Falcons

Invested

$264.62

Value

$16.54

PnL

-$248.08

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$2.75

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

3670-3275 (6945)

dips.CTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$2.64

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$1.92

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrFalcons 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.