Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 32.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 70¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 69.5¢

+37% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,362

Combined PnL-$263.24

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares8,770

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$120.2	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 54¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$328.57	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
CM cm2897	Underavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$494.69	49% 1237-1284 (2521)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 55¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$263.75	52% 2694-2510 (5204)
bakedbeanburrito	Underavg 55¢	$550	$695	+$145	— 8-9 (17)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 91¢	$273.43	$177.76	-$95.68	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 9¢	$27	$145.5	+$118.5	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 90¢	$126.81	$82.43	-$44.38	49% 486-502 (988)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 10¢	$14.09	$68.34	+$54.25	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$47.8	$44.5	-$3.3	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
dips.<$100	Underavg 11¢	$6.27	$23.65	+$17.38	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 64¢	$8.32	$8.65	+$0.32	58% 4023-2943 (6966)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,259.76

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$120.2

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,805.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$328.57

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$1,363.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$494.69

Record

49%

1237-1284 (2521)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$1,000.45

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$263.75

Record

52%

2694-2510 (5204)

bakedbeanburrito

Under

Invested

$550

Value

$695

PnL

+$145

Record

—

8-9 (17)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$273.43

Value

$177.76

PnL

-$95.68

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$27

Value

$145.5

PnL

+$118.5

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$126.81

Value

$82.43

PnL

-$44.38

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$14.09

Value

$68.34

PnL

+$54.25

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.8

Value

$44.5

PnL

-$3.3

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$6.27

Value

$23.65

PnL

+$17.38

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.