Spread: Panthers (-4.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (55%) · Saints at 54¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Panthers46¢Saints54¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$82.94

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 54¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers46%

Saints54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,307

Combined PnL-$293.45

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,948

Combined PnL+$210.51

Saints — 55%Panthers — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPanthers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Saintsavg 57¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	-$259.7	59% 1183-828 (2011)
RN1ARB<$100	Saintsavg 62¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$144.19	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 62¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$103.36
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 43.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$40.83
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Panthersavg 41.9¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$222.97	51% 572-546 (1118)
65 6512395314597884	Saintsavg 62¢	$248	$234	-$14	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Panthersavg 42.9¢	$224.98	$217.84	-$7.13	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
OD Oddstorm	Saintsavg 67¢	$144.05	$133.3	-$10.75	36% 140-253 (393)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Saintsavg 51¢	$60.8	$62.59	+$1.79	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
NO NotJump<$100	Saintsavg 62¢	$57.88	$30.71	-$1.67	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
38 38791873984189	Saintsavg 66¢	$115.4	$19.85	-$9.12	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Panthersavg 42¢	$51.99	$16.23	-$5.42	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$2	$2.07	+$0.07	50% 658-658 (1316)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$0.4	$0.42	+$0.01	58% 4023-2943 (6966)

primm

Saints

Invested

$3,700.72

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$259.7

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

RN1ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$2,951.5

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$144.19

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Both legs:

Saints$1,830.9462¢-$103.36

Panthers$1,120.5543.1¢-$40.83

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Panthers

Invested

$1,841.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$222.97

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

6512395314597884

Saints

Invested

$248

Value

$234

PnL

-$14

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Panthers

Invested

$224.98

Value

$217.84

PnL

-$7.13

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Oddstorm

Saints

Invested

$144.05

Value

$133.3

PnL

-$10.75

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Saints

Invested

$60.8

Value

$62.59

PnL

+$1.79

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

NotJump<$100

Saints

Invested

$57.88

Value

$30.71

PnL

-$1.67

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

38791873984189

Saints

Invested

$115.4

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$9.12

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$51.99

Value

$16.23

PnL

-$5.42

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Saints

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPanthers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.