Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 28.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 77¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 10

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.1K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 76.5¢

+24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$28.2K

Total Shares36,529

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Under6 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares29,930

Combined PnL-$468.25

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 61¢	$9.2K	$11.4K	+$2.3K	57% 104-80 (184)
PR primm	Overavg 62.1¢	$10.8K	$11.4K	+$1.7K	10% 18-162 (180)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 38.3¢	$8.9K	$9.0K	+$43.02	28% 121-308 (429)
CM cm2897	Overavg 62.1¢	$2.9K	$3.5K	+$646.71	47% 428-476 (904)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 57.4¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$81.28	43% 131-176 (307)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.4¢	$976	$1.0K	+$69.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$849.24	$861.03	+$11.78
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 38.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$80.03	52% 287-270 (557)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$1.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 72.7¢	$529.15	$447.53	-$81.62
BI biying88888	Overavg 62¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$258.16	19% 30-131 (161)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 38.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.35	48% 86-95 (181)
betdgeCTR	Underavg 39.9¢	$1.3K	$760.08	-$503.28	48% 10-11 (21)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 56¢	$292.68	$321.43	+$18.29	33% 108-219 (327)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 37¢	$185	$192.5	+$7.5	53% 214-189 (403)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 70.2¢	$365.92	$139.58	-$40.34	49% 427-449 (876)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$72	$43.2	-$28.8	0% 1-225 (226)
QI qidao001<$100	Overavg 62.5¢	$21.55	$26.21	+$4.66	75% 18-6 (24)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.58	$2.55	-$0.03	59% 1201-850 (2051)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$9,194.02

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

primm

Over

Invested

$10,839.99

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$8,907.74

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$43.02

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

cm2897

Over

Invested

$2,884.14

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$646.71

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,825.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$81.28

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

Both legs:

Over$97657.4¢+$69.5

Under$849.2438¢+$11.78

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,764.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$80.03

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

Both legs:

Under$1,235.1638.5¢+$1.59

Over$529.1572.7¢-$81.62

biying88888

Over

Invested

$1,143.28

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$258.16

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,353.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.35

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

betdgeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,263.36

Value

$760.08

PnL

-$503.28

Record

48%

10-11 (21)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$292.68

Value

$321.43

PnL

+$18.29

Record

33%

108-219 (327)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$185

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$365.92

Value

$139.58

PnL

-$40.34

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72

Value

$43.2

PnL

-$28.8

Record

1-225 (226)

qidao001<$100

Over

Invested

$21.55

Value

$26.21

PnL

+$4.66

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

59%

1201-850 (2051)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.