Spread: Bills (-6.5)

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (67%) · Vikings at 56¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 10

Bills45¢Vikings55¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.9K

Combined PnL

$328.22

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 55.5¢

-6% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

14 of 21 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bills45%

Vikings56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings14 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares22,011

Combined PnL-$318.29

Bills7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,792

Combined PnL+$646.51

Vikings — 67%Bills — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (19 on Vikings) disagree here.

sharpVikings 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrVikings 69% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 68% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 57.8¢	$9.8K	$5.9K	+$258.76	10% 18-162 (180)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Vikingsavg 60.4¢	$6.9K	$5.5K	-$520.2	57% 104-80 (184)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 60.4¢	$3.8K	$3.3K	-$533.63
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 43.2¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$13.43
RN1CTR	Billsavg 38¢	$1.9K	$2.5K	+$534.77	52% 287-270 (557)
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 60¢	$3.8K	$2.3K	-$376.36	49% 427-449 (876)
SU SunlineTicker	Vikingsavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$203.03	67% 762-377 (1139)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Vikingsavg 54¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$394.03	48% 86-95 (181)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 34¢	$680	$970	+$290
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 54¢	$867.05	$826.62	+$104.03
TA takeormakeCTR	Billsavg 43¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$40.3	22% 84-295 (379)
nigiri99	Vikingsavg 60.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.86	41% 29-42 (71)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Billsavg 40.3¢	$500.79	$565.73	+$64.94	43% 131-176 (307)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Vikingsavg 54¢	$275.3	$262.35	-$42.95	53% 214-189 (403)
JU justaluckydude	Vikingsavg 56¢	$213.42	$261.87	+$47.19	26% 55-158 (213)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Vikingsavg 60¢	$248	$242	-$6	5% 29-539 (568)
BO BoomLaLa	Vikingsavg 60¢	$185.38	$180.9	-$4.49	8% 11-120 (131)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Billsavg 39¢	$152.1	$154.05	+$1.95	55% 63-51 (114)
LI LightParadox<$100	Vikingsavg 48¢	$26.88	$30.52	+$3.64	28% 130-331 (461)
LI Limousin<$100	Vikingsavg 48¢	$26.88	$30.52	+$3.64	26% 127-363 (490)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Billsavg 36.7¢	$32.88	$21.42	+$3.75	49% 193-198 (391)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Vikingsavg 60¢	$18	$18.15	+$0.15	54% 439-381 (820)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Vikingsavg 60¢	$17.14	$17.28	+$0.14	1% 5-337 (342)
QI qidao001<$100	Vikingsavg 59.3¢	$18.77	$11.36	+$0.23	75% 18-6 (24)
PA pauleta23<$100	Vikingsavg 61¢	$10	$9.92	-$0.08	21% 77-286 (363)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Billsavg 40¢	$3.66	$4.26	+$0.59	26% 121-344 (465)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Billsavg 43¢	$3.44	$3.64	+$0.2	59% 1201-850 (2051)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$9,755

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$258.76

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$6,850.96

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$520.2

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Both legs:

Vikings$3,829.3960.4¢-$533.63

Bills$2,020.8643.2¢+$13.43

RN1CTR

Bills

Invested

$1,942.87

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$534.77

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$3,837.68

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$376.36

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

SunlineTicker

Vikings

Invested

$2,436.36

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$203.03

Record

67%

762-377 (1139)

Anon455ARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$1,402.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$394.03

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

Both legs:

Bills$68034¢+$290

Vikings$867.0554¢+$104.03

takeormakeCTR

Bills

Invested

$1,550.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$40.3

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

nigiri99

Vikings

Invested

$1,374.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.86

Record

41%

29-42 (71)

6512395314597884CTR

Bills

Invested

$500.79

Value

$565.73

PnL

+$64.94

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Vikings

Invested

$275.3

Value

$262.35

PnL

-$42.95

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

justaluckydude

Vikings

Invested

$213.42

Value

$261.87

PnL

+$47.19

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Vikings

Invested

$248

Value

$242

PnL

-$6

Record

29-539 (568)

BoomLaLa

Vikings

Invested

$185.38

Value

$180.9

PnL

-$4.49

Record

11-120 (131)

Siddhartha1CTR

Bills

Invested

$152.1

Value

$154.05

PnL

+$1.95

Record

55%

63-51 (114)

LightParadox<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.88

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$3.64

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

Limousin<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.88

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$3.64

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$32.88

Value

$21.42

PnL

+$3.75

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

averagejoetraders<$100

Vikings

Invested

$18

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

439-381 (820)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Vikings

Invested

$17.14

Value

$17.28

PnL

+$0.14

Record

5-337 (342)

qidao001<$100

Vikings

Invested

$18.77

Value

$11.36

PnL

+$0.23

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

pauleta23<$100

Vikings

Invested

$10

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.08

Record

21%

77-286 (363)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$3.66

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$0.59

Record

26%

121-344 (465)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.64

PnL

+$0.2

Record

59%

1201-850 (2051)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

14 of 21 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

68% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (19 on Vikings) disagree here.

sharpVikings 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrVikings 69% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 68% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.