Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 67¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 8

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.8K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 66.5¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$23.1K

Total Shares34,244

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares11,116

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 60.1¢	$8.7K	$9.8K	+$1.1K	46% 1432-1658 (3090)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 58¢	$7.2K	$8.4K	+$1.2K	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 58.5¢	$4.8K	$3.2K	+$473.32	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
RN1CTR	Overavg 40.7¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$649.75	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 57.2¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$128.45	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.2¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$278.42
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.2¢	$876.36	$726.38	-$149.98
nigiri99	Underavg 58¢	$907.12	$1.1K	+$148.58	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 44.7¢	$1.1K	$826.87	-$309.5	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 58¢	$455.67	$500.55	+$44.87	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$290	$337.5	+$47.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 33¢	$165.67	$163.05	-$2.63
BA Bayupati	Underavg 48¢	$330.36	$409.51	+$79.15	48% 281-299 (580)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 52¢	$109.17	$140.6	+$31.43	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 52¢	$130	$101.25	-$28.75	53% 14337-12645 (26982)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$106.35	$92.6	-$13.75	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 59¢	$57.56	$58.05	+$0.49	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 45.8¢	$60.53	$53.49	-$7.04	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$21.3	$23.26	+$1.96	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$4.2	$4.55	+$0.35	53% 3775-3371 (7146)
QI qidao001<$100	Underavg 69.5¢	$2.19	$2.13	-$0.06	84% 1390-256 (1646)

primm

Under

Invested

$8,700.83

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

46%

1432-1658 (3090)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$7,232.05

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$4,762.93

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$473.32

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$3,232.4

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$649.75

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,420.1

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$128.45

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

Both legs:

Under$1,543.7457.2¢+$278.42

Over$876.3639.2¢-$149.98

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$907.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$148.58

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,136.37

Value

$826.87

PnL

-$309.5

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$455.67

Value

$500.55

PnL

+$44.87

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

Both legs:

Invested

$330.36

Value

$409.51

PnL

+$79.15

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$109.17

Value

$140.6

PnL

+$31.43

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$130

Value

$101.25

PnL

-$28.75

Record

53%

14337-12645 (26982)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$106.35

Value

$92.6

PnL

-$13.75

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$57.56

Value

$58.05

PnL

+$0.49

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.53

Value

$53.49

PnL

-$7.04

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$21.3

Value

$23.26

PnL

+$1.96

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

3775-3371 (7146)

qidao001<$100

Under

Invested

$2.19

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.06

Record

84%

1390-256 (1646)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.