Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 62¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 62¢

+22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares20,216

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over5 traders

Total Value$205.98

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$6.71

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51¢	$6.7K	$8.1K	+$1.4K	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$214.31	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
0xheavy888	Underavg 51¢	$573.75	$697.5	+$123.75	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 51¢	$262.92	$319.63	+$56.71	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 47¢	$172.7	$192.91	+$20.21	54% 593-502 (1095)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$183.81	$179.16	-$4.65	48% 520-559 (1079)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Underavg 47¢	$31.78	$35.5	+$3.72	48% 8326-8887 (17213)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 55¢	$20.56	$20.18	-$0.11	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
CM cm2897<$100	Underavg 53¢	$15.9	$18.15	+$2.25	50% 2575-2627 (5202)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$11.02	$11.38	+$0.36	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$5.92	$6.11	+$0.19	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$7.61	$5.9	-$1.71	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.18	$4.88	+$0.7	53% 14337-12645 (26982)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.32	$3.42	-$0.9	53% 13686-12062 (25748)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,697.79

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$2,950.77

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$214.31

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$573.75

Value

$697.5

PnL

+$123.75

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$262.92

Value

$319.63

PnL

+$56.71

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$172.7

Value

$192.91

PnL

+$20.21

Record

54%

593-502 (1095)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$183.81

Value

$179.16

PnL

-$4.65

Record

48%

520-559 (1079)

Oddstorm<$100

Under

Invested

$31.78

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$3.72

Record

48%

8326-8887 (17213)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$20.56

Value

$20.18

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

cm2897<$100

Under

Invested

$15.9

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

2575-2627 (5202)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$0.36

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.92

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0.19

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.61

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$1.71

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

14337-12645 (26982)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.32

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.