Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (96%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 38.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 4.5¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$18.83

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 4.5¢

-91% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,982

Combined PnL-$491.29

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,223

Combined PnL+$472.46

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 51.6¢	$3.1K	$2.5K	-$521.27	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
BI biying88888	Underavg 48¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$415.53	47% 242-270 (512)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 45.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$4.62	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$11.7	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$900	$850	-$50
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$354.44	$416.18	+$61.7
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 53¢	$710.91	$750.35	+$39.44	48% 521-567 (1088)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 47.7¢	$746.16	$416.84	+$61.28	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 45¢	$500	$215	-$10	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 46¢	$217	$100.91	+$1.09	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 46.6¢	$15.02	$14.95	-$0.08	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$20	$8.5	-$0.7	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
QI qidao001<$100	Underavg 55.8¢	$5.78	$5.96	+$0.18	84% 1390-257 (1647)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$3.26	$3.41	+$0.16	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1	$1.17	+$0.17	45% 462-569 (1031)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$3,059.14

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$521.27

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$2,099.52

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$415.53

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,725.35

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$4.62

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,254.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.7

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Over$90045¢-$50

Under$354.4449¢+$61.7

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$710.91

Value

$750.35

PnL

+$39.44

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$746.16

Value

$416.84

PnL

+$61.28

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$215

PnL

-$10

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$217

Value

$100.91

PnL

+$1.09

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15.02

Value

$14.95

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

qidao001<$100

Under

Invested

$5.78

Value

$5.96

PnL

+$0.18

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.17

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.