Spread: Seahawks (-8.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (75%) · Cardinals at 56¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 8

Seahawks44¢Cardinals56¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Cardinals 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 56¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks44%

Cardinals56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cardinals9 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares26,378

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Seahawks3 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares26,076

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Cardinals — 75%Seahawks — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI big8betz	Cardinalsavg 50.3¢	$4.0K	$5.1K	+$1.2K	50% 58-57 (115)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Cardinalsavg 56.3¢	$4.2K	$4.9K	+$724.7	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Seahawksavg 45.9¢	$5.0K	$3.8K	$-1.2K	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
CH CharityStripeCTR	Seahawksavg 51¢	$5.1K	$3.5K	$-1.5K	50% 309-315 (624)
HE Herdonia	Cardinalsavg 49¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$26.92	50% 4154-4225 (8379)
GreedoCTR	Seahawksavg 51¢	$2.6K	$1.6K	-$973.07	48% 191-205 (396)
HO HomeRunHazard	Cardinalsavg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$309.37	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Cardinalsavg 48.7¢	$604.88	$629.34	+$24.46	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 48.7¢	$354.88	$411.84	+$56.96
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 50¢	$250	$217.5	-$32.5
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Cardinalsavg 49¢	$594.34	$600.41	+$6.06	48% 520-559 (1079)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Seahawksavg 50¢	$495	$500	+$5	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 49¢	$245	$340	+$95
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 50¢	$250	$160	-$90
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cardinalsavg 48.1¢	$248.5	$340.84	+$92.34	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Cardinalsavg 49¢	$196	$258	+$62	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Cardinalsavg 52¢	$74.28	$70	-$3.57	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Cardinalsavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.48	+$0.33	48% 8326-8887 (17213)

big8betz

Cardinals

Invested

$3,955.09

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

58-57 (115)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Cardinals

Invested

$4,216.62

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$724.7

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$5,024.65

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

CharityStripeCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$5,100

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

309-315 (624)

Herdonia

Cardinals

Invested

$2,637.91

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.92

Record

50%

4154-4225 (8379)

GreedoCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$2,611.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$973.07

Record

48%

191-205 (396)

HomeRunHazard

Cardinals

Invested

$1,055.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$309.37

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

GC-PARB<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$604.88

Value

$629.34

PnL

+$24.46

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Both legs:

Cardinals$354.8848.7¢+$56.96

Seahawks$25050¢-$32.5

Multicoloured-Serf

Cardinals

Invested

$594.34

Value

$600.41

PnL

+$6.06

Record

48%

520-559 (1079)

NM-PARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$495

Value

$500

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

Both legs:

Cardinals$24549¢+$95

Seahawks$25050¢-$90

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cardinals

Invested

$248.5

Value

$340.84

PnL

+$92.34

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Cardinals

Invested

$196

Value

$258

PnL

+$62

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

SnakeBall<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$74.28

Value

$70

PnL

-$3.57

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Oddstorm<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

8326-8887 (17213)

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.