Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$2.3K
-$219.92
66.5¢ → 62¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 67¢ | $2.3K | $2.0K | -$330.39 | — 3-1 (4) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $114 | $121.5 | +$7.5 | — 1-0 (1) |
 ifyouloveme | Noavg 56.3¢ | $103.73 | $105.89 | +$2.16 | 52% 266-248 (514) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $37.38 | $38.88 | +$1.5 | 53% 5995-5369 (11364) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 37.1¢ | $190.27 | $29.53 | +$94.84 | 40% 3217-4824 (8041) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $17.05 | $20.31 | +$3.26 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $5.6 | $6.8 | +$1.2 | 12% 34-241 (275) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$2,326.17
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$330.39
Record
—
3-1 (4)
Invested
$114
Value
$121.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
—
1-0 (1)
ifyoulovemeInvested
$103.73
Value
$105.89
PnL
+$2.16
Record
52%
266-248 (514)
Invested
$37.38
Value
$38.88
PnL
+$1.5
Record
53%
5995-5369 (11364)
Invested
$190.27
Value
$29.53
PnL
+$94.84
Record
40%
3217-4824 (8041)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$17.05
Value
$20.31
PnL
+$3.26
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.6
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$1.2
Record
12%
34-241 (275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.