Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 13, 2026?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 57¢ · $674 held · ends Nov 14

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$674.38

Combined PnL

$344.95

Smart Money Entry

75.8¢ → 57¢

-25% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$430.5

Total Shares1,194

Combined PnL+$376.88

Yes2 traders

Total Value$176.91

Total Shares295

Combined PnL-$31.93

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 24.7¢	$103.79	$151.2	+$47.41	53% 23842-20976 (44818)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 16.2¢	$337.38	$144.77	+$248	52% 31079-29042 (60121)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 15.4¢	$29.53	$107.32	+$77.79	53% 8627-7719 (16346)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 69.6¢	$107.84	$105.19	-$2.64	34% 19439-36995 (56434)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 85¢	$101.6	$71.72	-$29.29	40% 6592-9939 (16531)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100	Yesavg 72.5¢	$186.27	$66.96	-$8.31	23% 1810-6079 (7889)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72.5¢	$52.17	$43.2	-$28.48
└ No leg	Noavg 28.2¢	$20.34	$23.76	+$20.17
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$13.64	$15.79	+$2.15	56% 18835-15002 (33837)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 26.5¢	$17.71	$11.42	+$1.53	58% 21422-15550 (36972)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$103.79

Value

$151.2

PnL

+$47.41

Record

53%

23842-20976 (44818)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$337.38

Value

$144.77

PnL

+$248

Record

52%

31079-29042 (60121)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$29.53

Value

$107.32

PnL

+$77.79

Record

53%

8627-7719 (16346)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$107.84

Value

$105.19

PnL

-$2.64

Record

34%

19439-36995 (56434)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$101.6

Value

$71.72

PnL

-$29.29

Record

40%

6592-9939 (16531)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$186.27

Value

$66.96

PnL

-$8.31

Record

23%

1810-6079 (7889)

Both legs:

Yes$52.1772.5¢-$28.48

No$20.3428.2¢+$20.17

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Invested

$13.64

Value

$15.79

PnL

+$2.15

Record

56%

18835-15002 (33837)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$17.71

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$1.53

Record

58%

21422-15550 (36972)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.