Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

VVV Venlo vs. FC Eindhoven: Both Teams to Score

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 37¢ · $160 held · ended Nov 14

Yes64¢No36¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$159.77

Combined PnL

$9.95

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$103.82

Total Shares137

Combined PnL+$16.42

No7 traders

Total Value$55.94

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$6.47

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$30.55	$42.21	+$11.66	41% 147-210 (357)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$41.34	$39.77	-$1.57	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 23.1¢	$16.22	$23.21	+$6.99	37% 996-1715 (2711)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$15.52	$21.84	+$6.32	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 48.1¢	$27.91	$13.94	-$13.97	36% 979-1704 (2683)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$9.71	$7.44	-$2.27	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 18.5¢	$3.42	$4.42	+$1.01	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$2.93	$3.96	+$1.03	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$1.85	$2.49	+$0.65	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$0.38	$0.48	+$0.1	47% 936-1037 (1973)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.55

Value

$42.21

PnL

+$11.66

Record

41%

147-210 (357)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.34

Value

$39.77

PnL

-$1.57

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$16.22

Value

$23.21

PnL

+$6.99

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.52

Value

$21.84

PnL

+$6.32

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$27.91

Value

$13.94

PnL

-$13.97

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$9.71

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$2.27

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$3.42

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$1.01

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$2.93

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$1.03

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$2.49

PnL

+$0.65

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.