Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Roda JC Kerkrade win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 47¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$25.53

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 46.5¢

-11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$274.62

Total Shares458

Combined PnL+$25.57

No3 traders

Total Value$46.3

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$0.04

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$916.83	$915.7	-$1.13	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$462.96	$676.27	+$213.31
└ No leg	Noavg 48.3¢	$453.87	$239.43	-$214.45
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 48.5¢	$558.64	$580.14	+$21.5	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.5¢	$297.48	$318.97	+$21.5
└ No leg	Noavg 48¢	$261.17	$261.17	+$0
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 51.7¢	$87.52	$105.89	+$18.37	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.5¢	$66.9	$71.72	+$4.82	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$47.24	$49.03	+$1.79	31% 355-790 (1145)
RN1<$100	Noavg 50¢	$36.5	$36.87	+$0.37	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$21.42	$22.78	+$1.36	39% 562-895 (1457)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$13.81	$13.11	-$0.69	41% 147-210 (357)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$12.16	$12.08	-$0.08	76% 257-83 (340)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.28	$4.87	-$0.41	37% 991-1715 (2706)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 24¢	$4.56	$4.56	+$0	36% 975-1701 (2676)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$916.83

Value

$915.7

PnL

-$1.13

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

Both legs:

Yes$462.9651¢+$213.31

No$453.8748.3¢-$214.45

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$558.64

Value

$580.14

PnL

+$21.5

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

Both legs:

Yes$297.4848.5¢+$21.5

No$261.1748¢+$0

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$87.52

Value

$105.89

PnL

+$18.37

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.9

Value

$71.72

PnL

+$4.82

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.24

Value

$49.03

PnL

+$1.79

Record

31%

355-790 (1145)

RN1<$100

Invested

$36.5

Value

$36.87

PnL

+$0.37

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.42

Value

$22.78

PnL

+$1.36

Record

39%

562-895 (1457)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.81

Value

$13.11

PnL

-$0.69

Record

41%

147-210 (357)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.16

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$0.08

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$5.28

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.41

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.