De Graafschap vs. TOP Oss: O/U 3.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 68¢ · $459 held · ended Nov 14

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$459.5

Combined PnL

$18.67

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 68¢

+15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$279.22

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$25.61

Over6 traders

Total Value$75.59

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$6.94

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 62¢	$140.42	$156.28	+$15.85	39% 563-895 (1458)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 66¢	$95.65	$104.62	+$8.97	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66¢	$66.41	$75.5	+$9.09
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.1¢	$29.24	$29.13	-$0.11
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$62.63	$67.32	+$4.7	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 62.3¢	$50.56	$55.62	+$5.06	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$24	$22.04	-$1.96	35% 269-489 (758)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$17.62	$14.76	-$2.86	36% 481-851 (1332)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$15.23	$12.75	-$2.48	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$12.78	$12.5	-$0.28	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$10.15	$10.85	+$0.7	45% 679-837 (1516)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.75	$2.69	-$0.06	42% 1031-1416 (2447)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$140.42

Value

$156.28

PnL

+$15.85

Record

39%

563-895 (1458)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$95.65

Value

$104.62

PnL

+$8.97

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Both legs:

Under$66.4166¢+$9.09

Over$29.2425.1¢-$0.11

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$62.63

Value

$67.32

PnL

+$4.7

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$50.56

Value

$55.62

PnL

+$5.06

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24

Value

$22.04

PnL

-$1.96

Record

35%

269-489 (758)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.62

Value

$14.76

PnL

-$2.86

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.23

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$2.48

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.78

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.85

PnL

+$0.7

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$0.06

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.