FC Dordrecht vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 3.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$867.35

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 94.5¢

+67% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,184

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over3 traders

Total Value$712.15

Total Shares1,865

Combined PnL-$249.79

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 56.5¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$809.05	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 28.2¢	$894.95	$688.97	-$205.98	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 47¢	$282.43	$450.69	+$168.26	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 47¢	$190.51	$304.01	+$113.5	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
RN1	Underavg 84¢	$168	$168	+$0	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 90.9¢	$131.8	$136.3	+$4.5	76% 257-83 (340)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 49¢	$38.22	$58.5	+$20.28	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Overavg 51.7¢	$34.99	$12.18	-$22.81	35% 269-489 (758)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$32	$11	-$21	47% 993-1122 (2115)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 48¢	$6.03	$6.49	+$0.46	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.65	$3.75	+$1.1	20% 49-195 (244)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,549.37

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$809.05

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$894.95

Value

$688.97

PnL

-$205.98

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$282.43

Value

$450.69

PnL

+$168.26

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$190.51

Value

$304.01

PnL

+$113.5

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

RN1

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$168

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$131.8

Value

$136.3

PnL

+$4.5

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$38.22

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$20.28

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.99

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$22.81

Record

35%

269-489 (758)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32

Value

$11

PnL

-$21

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$6.03

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$0.46

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

Notradecopy<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$1.1

Record

20%

49-195 (244)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.