NAC Breda vs. FC Emmen: 1st Half O/U 1.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$387.72

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,649

Combined PnL+$360.33

Over6 traders

Total Value$129.48

Total Shares3,721

Combined PnL-$748.05

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Underavg 77¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$353.87	84% 75-14 (89)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 68.1¢	$122.23	$179.47	+$57.24	64% 300-171 (471)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 23.5¢	$36.22	$50.13	+$13.91	36% 933-1644 (2577)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 72¢	$95.82	$45.92	-$49.91	38% 544-884 (1428)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$25.32	$36.05	+$10.73	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$13.5	$19.65	+$6.15	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 22.3¢	$5.94	$12.14	+$6.2	35% 440-800 (1240)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$6.4	$9.79	+$3.39	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$1.72	-$0.88	60% 712-483 (1195)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 23¢	$790.16	$1.72	-$788.44	37% 970-1635 (2605)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Under

Invested

$2,659.15

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$353.87

Record

84%

75-14 (89)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$122.23

Value

$179.47

PnL

+$57.24

Record

64%

300-171 (471)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.22

Value

$50.13

PnL

+$13.91

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$95.82

Value

$45.92

PnL

-$49.91

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.32

Value

$36.05

PnL

+$10.73

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.5

Value

$19.65

PnL

+$6.15

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.94

Value

$12.14

PnL

+$6.2

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.4

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$3.39

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.88

Record

60%

712-483 (1195)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$790.16

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$788.44

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.