Almere City FC vs. Helmond Sport: O/U 1.5
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $404 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 33%
$404.29
$8
90.8¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 89¢ | $186.09 | $178.77 | -$7.32 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $97 | $95 | -$2 | 85% 216-39 (255) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $60 | $68.94 | +$8.93 | 41% 147-210 (357) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $30.1 | $36.38 | +$6.28 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $10 | $14.5 | +$4.5 | 55% 5402-4371 (9773) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $8.97 | $7.24 | -$1.72 | 49% 1169-1236 (2405) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $2 | $1.7 | -$0.3 | 36% 975-1701 (2676) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $1.9 | $1.45 | -$0.45 | 37% 991-1715 (2706) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 11¢ | $0.23 | $0.31 | +$0.07 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
Invested
$186.09
Value
$178.77
PnL
-$7.32
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$97
Value
$95
PnL
-$2
Record
85%
216-39 (255)
Invested
$60
Value
$68.94
PnL
+$8.93
Record
41%
147-210 (357)
Invested
$30.1
Value
$36.38
PnL
+$6.28
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$14.5
PnL
+$4.5
Record
55%
5402-4371 (9773)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$8.97
Value
$7.24
PnL
-$1.72
Record
49%
1169-1236 (2405)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
36%
975-1701 (2676)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.45
Record
37%
991-1715 (2706)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.31
PnL
+$0.07
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.