Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 222.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 10¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$462.54

Smart Money Entry

29¢ → 10¢

-66% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$999.96

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$50

Over6 traders

Total Value$463.43

Total Shares3,002

Combined PnL-$412.54

Under — 14%Over — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 78¢	$1.0K	$999.96	-$50	55% 719-584 (1303)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 38.1¢	$761.91	$383.27	-$159.77	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$181.02	$266.87	+$109.34
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.1¢	$385.52	$116.4	-$269.12
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 27¢	$270	$170	-$100	45% 185-223 (408)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 24.3¢	$297.15	$140.52	-$156.63	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 38.3¢	$233.85	$103.93	-$129.93	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 36.9¢	$52.05	$35.55	-$12.9	49% 693-734 (1427)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$25.84	$10.15	-$15.69	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$4.29	$3.29	+$2.6	55% 683-554 (1237)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,049.96

Value

$999.96

PnL

-$50

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$761.91

Value

$383.27

PnL

-$159.77

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Under$181.0260¢+$109.34

Over$385.5238.1¢-$269.12

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$270

Value

$170

PnL

-$100

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$297.15

Value

$140.52

PnL

-$156.63

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$233.85

Value

$103.93

PnL

-$129.93

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.05

Value

$35.55

PnL

-$12.9

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.84

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$15.69

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.29

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$2.6

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.