Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$608.87

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 81¢

+42% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,516

Combined PnL+$786.82

Over3 traders

Total Value$271.87

Total Shares1,269

Combined PnL-$177.95

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+56 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 72.2¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$320.77	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Under leg	Underavg 72.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$45.49
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.8¢	$1.0K	$740.97	-$275.28
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 67.4¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$199.46	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
BI biying88888	Underavg 49¢	$392	$644	+$252	37% 121-203 (324)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 46.2¢	$199.14	$346.92	+$147.78	31% 412-920 (1332)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$258.6	$280.88	+$22.28	45% 185-223 (408)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$125.84	$214.5	+$88.66
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$132.76	$66.38	-$66.38
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 29¢	$243.52	$163.75	-$79.78	53% 290-259 (549)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 45¢	$74.88	$124.81	+$49.92	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 43¢	$66.38	$108.06	+$41.68	31% 412-897 (1309)
LI Limousin	Underavg 50¢	$66.38	$106.87	+$40.49	30% 402-921 (1323)
VE Venusian	Underavg 50¢	$66.38	$106.87	+$40.49	31% 411-924 (1335)
RN1CTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$174.43	$76.62	-$97.82	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 45¢	$22.5	$37.5	+$15	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$31.86	$31.5	-$0.36	49% 693-734 (1427)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,242.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$320.77

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Under$1,226.6572.2¢-$45.49

Over$1,016.2541.8¢-$275.28

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,110.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$199.46

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$392

Value

$644

PnL

+$252

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$199.14

Value

$346.92

PnL

+$147.78

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$258.6

Value

$280.88

PnL

+$22.28

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Both legs:

Under$125.8444¢+$88.66

Over$132.7650¢-$66.38

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$243.52

Value

$163.75

PnL

-$79.78

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$74.88

Value

$124.81

PnL

+$49.92

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$108.06

PnL

+$41.68

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$106.87

PnL

+$40.49

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$106.87

PnL

+$40.49

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$174.43

Value

$76.62

PnL

-$97.82

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$22.5

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.86

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+56 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.