Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 216.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 74¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 12

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 74¢

+30% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares8,048

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over3 traders

Total Value$479.16

Total Shares1,767

Combined PnL-$172.84

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 67.8¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$227.59	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
BI biying88888	Underavg 48.6¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$707.73	37% 121-203 (324)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 44.4¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$290.07	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.4¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$465.68
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.9¢	$364.66	$540.26	+$175.61
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 41.1¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$374.57	45% 185-223 (408)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.1¢	$1.2K	$801.94	-$442.53
└ Under leg	Underavg 65¢	$519.68	$587.63	+$67.96
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 65.8¢	$801.91	$931.63	+$129.72	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
VE Venusian	Underavg 43.8¢	$351.65	$613.69	+$262.04	31% 411-924 (1335)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 48.9¢	$203.21	$317.98	+$114.77	31% 412-920 (1332)
LI Limousin	Underavg 48.7¢	$139.67	$219.56	+$79.89	30% 402-921 (1323)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 35¢	$299.15	$200.86	-$98.29	53% 290-259 (549)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 40¢	$259.31	$197.48	-$61.83	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 58.8¢	$239.21	$186.68	-$26.45	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.7¢	$89.53	$137.91	+$46.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.8¢	$122.13	$48.77	-$73.36
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 35.3¢	$93.54	$80.83	-$12.71	49% 693-734 (1427)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Underavg 29¢	$24.8	$55.59	+$30.79	61% 930-595 (1525)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 47¢	$26.07	$38.55	+$12.48	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 41¢	$7.38	$11.7	+$4.32	31% 412-897 (1309)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,785.13

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$227.59

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$1,231.55

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$707.73

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,853.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$290.07

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$1,488.4344.4¢-$465.68

Under$364.6646.9¢+$175.61

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,764.15

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$374.57

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Both legs:

Over$1,244.4741.1¢-$442.53

Under$519.6865¢+$67.96

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$801.91

Value

$931.63

PnL

+$129.72

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$351.65

Value

$613.69

PnL

+$262.04

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$203.21

Value

$317.98

PnL

+$114.77

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$139.67

Value

$219.56

PnL

+$79.89

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$299.15

Value

$200.86

PnL

-$98.29

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$259.31

Value

$197.48

PnL

-$61.83

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$239.21

Value

$186.68

PnL

-$26.45

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Under$89.5349.7¢+$46.9

Over$122.1358.8¢-$73.36

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.54

Value

$80.83

PnL

-$12.71

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

darkumbreon88<$100

Under

Invested

$24.8

Value

$55.59

PnL

+$30.79

Record

61%

930-595 (1525)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$26.07

Value

$38.55

PnL

+$12.48

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$7.38

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$4.32

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.