Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 214.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 68¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 12

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 67.5¢

+31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares19,662

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares16,134

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 50¢	$6.0K	$8.2K	+$2.2K	30% 16-37 (53)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50¢	$5.7K	$4.3K	$-1.4K	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$291.5	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.9¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$371.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$80
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 63.4¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$327.83	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
VE Venusian	Underavg 48.1¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$524.52	31% 411-924 (1335)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 43.9¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$247.71	45% 185-223 (408)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.9¢	$1.2K	$905.04	-$337.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$590	$680	+$90
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$122.51	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.3¢	$953.79	$974.52	+$20.73
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.9¢	$691.58	$548.34	-$143.24
MA MadridTime	Underavg 45.5¢	$603.01	$828.59	+$225.58	31% 412-897 (1309)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 41.7¢	$862.93	$651.17	-$211.76	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 49.2¢	$330.3	$459.97	+$129.67	31% 412-920 (1332)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$496.92	$400.89	+$76.87	30% 402-921 (1323)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.3¢	$217.06	$301.32	+$110.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$132.76	$99.57	-$33.19
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 42.8¢	$500.51	$368.71	-$131.8	53% 290-259 (549)
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR	Overavg 39¢	$364.05	$310.77	-$53.28	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$220.43	$175.29	-$45.14	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 41.3¢	$97.72	$62.92	-$15.26	49% 693-734 (1427)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$37	$37.5	+$0.5	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$36.75	$27.02	-$9.73	39% 395-620 (1015)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$5,997.6

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

30%

16-37 (53)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$5,677.5

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,878.94

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$291.5

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$1,708.9547.9¢-$371.5

Under$1,169.9958.5¢+$80

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,965.12

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$327.83

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$1,236.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$524.52

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,832.75

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$247.71

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Both legs:

Over$1,242.7543.9¢-$337.71

Under$59059¢+$90

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,645.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$122.51

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Under$953.7955.3¢+$20.73

Over$691.5854.9¢-$143.24

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$603.01

Value

$828.59

PnL

+$225.58

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$862.93

Value

$651.17

PnL

-$211.76

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$330.3

Value

$459.97

PnL

+$129.67

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

LimousinARB<$100

Under

Invested

$496.92

Value

$400.89

PnL

+$76.87

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

Both legs:

Under$217.0649.3¢+$110.06

Over$132.7642¢-$33.19

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$500.51

Value

$368.71

PnL

-$131.8

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

0x5d40...ba95CTR

Over

Invested

$364.05

Value

$310.77

PnL

-$53.28

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$220.43

Value

$175.29

PnL

-$45.14

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$97.72

Value

$62.92

PnL

-$15.26

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.75

Value

$27.02

PnL

-$9.73

Record

39%

395-620 (1015)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.