Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 212.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 74¢ · $950 held · ended Nov 12

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$949.53

Combined PnL

$134.98

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 74¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$526.96

Total Shares652

Combined PnL+$20.16

Under5 traders

Total Value$376.79

Total Shares1,396

Combined PnL+$114.82

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 74.2¢	$302.92	$306.38	+$3.46	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 17¢	$131.58	$216.72	+$85.14	45% 183-223 (406)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 72¢	$165.95	$178.15	+$12.2	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 20.6¢	$117.07	$142.13	+$25.06	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 84¢	$48.21	$45.78	-$2.43	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Over leg	Overavg 84¢	$27.93	$23.94	-$3.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 26¢	$20.28	$21.84	+$1.56
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 72¢	$37.93	$42.44	+$4.51	49% 692-733 (1425)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 18.8¢	$10.16	$13.73	+$3.57	55% 719-584 (1303)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$2.1	$2.8	+$0.7	55% 680-552 (1232)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.4	+$0.35	30% 401-920 (1321)

RN1

Over

Invested

$302.92

Value

$306.38

PnL

+$3.46

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$131.58

Value

$216.72

PnL

+$85.14

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$165.95

Value

$178.15

PnL

+$12.2

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$117.07

Value

$142.13

PnL

+$25.06

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$48.21

Value

$45.78

PnL

-$2.43

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Invested

$37.93

Value

$42.44

PnL

+$4.51

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.16

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$3.57

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.7

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.35

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.