Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 210.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 48¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$354.18

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 48¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,666

Combined PnL-$283.29

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,108

Combined PnL+$637.47

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 60¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$278.35	55% 719-584 (1303)
RN1	Underavg 33.3¢	$588.32	$910.9	+$322.58	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 62.7¢	$717.24	$736.29	+$43.06	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.5¢	$309.17	$435.71	+$131.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.7¢	$388.74	$300.58	-$88.16
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 44.4¢	$498.04	$577.44	+$79.4	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 49.3¢	$470.7	$463.27	-$7.42	45% 185-223 (408)
VE Venusian	Underavg 38.6¢	$282.76	$420.81	+$138.05	31% 411-924 (1335)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 42.6¢	$132.75	$158.82	+$26.07	31% 412-897 (1309)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 38.2¢	$100.24	$135.3	+$35.06	31% 412-920 (1332)
LI Limousin	Underavg 38¢	$66.38	$100.44	+$34.06	30% 402-921 (1323)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$51	+$4	53% 290-259 (549)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$25.29	$29.17	+$3.88	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 43.6¢	$18.07	$20.32	+$2.25	49% 693-734 (1427)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$22.4	$17	-$5.4	64% 280-160 (440)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,598.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$278.35

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

RN1

Under

Invested

$588.32

Value

$910.9

PnL

+$322.58

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$717.24

Value

$736.29

PnL

+$43.06

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Under$309.1736.5¢+$131.22

Over$388.7462.7¢-$88.16

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$498.04

Value

$577.44

PnL

+$79.4

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$470.7

Value

$463.27

PnL

-$7.42

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$282.76

Value

$420.81

PnL

+$138.05

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$132.75

Value

$158.82

PnL

+$26.07

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$100.24

Value

$135.3

PnL

+$35.06

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$100.44

PnL

+$34.06

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$51

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.29

Value

$29.17

PnL

+$3.88

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$18.07

Value

$20.32

PnL

+$2.25

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.4

Value

$17

PnL

-$5.4

Record

64%

280-160 (440)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.