Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 206.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$53.19

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 69.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,703

Combined PnL-$72.72

Under5 traders

Total Value$104.81

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$19.53

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 71.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$16.97	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 71.9¢	$734.04	$632.6	-$101.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.1¢	$449.66	$568.07	+$118.41
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 72¢	$875.7	$827.56	-$48.14	53% 290-259 (549)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 27.2¢	$693.98	$762.83	+$134.1	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Under leg	Underavg 27.2¢	$342.9	$479.33	+$150.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 65.7¢	$300.36	$283.5	-$16.86
RN1	Overavg 73.5¢	$333.59	$311.17	-$22.42	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$50.44	$64.02	+$13.58	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
5D 0x5d40...ba95<$100	Overavg 70¢	$35.87	$34.36	-$1.51	—
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$29.14	$33.67	+$4.53	45% 185-223 (408)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Overavg 65¢	$14.1	$13.45	-$0.65	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$3.06	$2.97	-$0.09	31% 412-897 (1309)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$2.45	$2.38	-$0.07	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$7.09	$1.77	+$1.58	49% 693-734 (1427)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,183.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$16.97

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$734.0471.9¢-$101.43

Under$449.6630.1¢+$118.41

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$875.7

Value

$827.56

PnL

-$48.14

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$693.98

Value

$762.83

PnL

+$134.1

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Under$342.927.2¢+$150.96

Over$300.3665.7¢-$16.86

RN1

Over

Invested

$333.59

Value

$311.17

PnL

-$22.42

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.44

Value

$64.02

PnL

+$13.58

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0x5d40...ba95<$100

Over

Invested

$35.87

Value

$34.36

PnL

-$1.51

Record

—

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.14

Value

$33.67

PnL

+$4.53

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Over

Invested

$14.1

Value

$13.45

PnL

-$0.65

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.09

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.09

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$1.58

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.