Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 204.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$32.13

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 78.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,273

Combined PnL+$49.28

Under3 traders

Total Value$242.16

Total Shares1,015

Combined PnL-$17.15

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 75.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$25.31	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 75.9¢	$861.69	$805.65	-$56.04
└ Under leg	Underavg 25.9¢	$281.48	$315.4	+$30.73
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 73¢	$696.81	$757.8	+$60.99	55% 719-584 (1303)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 78¢	$199.29	$187.79	-$11.5	53% 290-259 (549)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 24.6¢	$170.61	$133.46	-$37.15	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 21.6¢	$80.58	$98.92	+$18.34	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Overavg 77.6¢	$48.17	$44.5	-$2.67	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 71¢	$24.85	$27.3	+$2.45	49% 693-734 (1427)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$8.13	$9.79	+$1.66	45% 185-223 (408)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,157.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$25.31

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Over$861.6975.9¢-$56.04

Under$281.4825.9¢+$30.73

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$696.81

Value

$757.8

PnL

+$60.99

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$199.29

Value

$187.79

PnL

-$11.5

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$170.61

Value

$133.46

PnL

-$37.15

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$80.58

Value

$98.92

PnL

+$18.34

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Over

Invested

$48.17

Value

$44.5

PnL

-$2.67

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$24.85

Value

$27.3

PnL

+$2.45

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.13

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$1.66

Record

45%

185-223 (408)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.