Spread: Pacers (-9.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (25%) · Wizards at 64¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Pacers37¢Wizards63¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 25%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$469.14

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 63.5¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers37%

Wizards64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,818

Combined PnL+$277.84

Pacers6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,183

Combined PnL+$191.31

Wizards — 25%Pacers — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Wizardsavg 73.6¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$350.31	55% 719-584 (1303)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pacersavg 27¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$351.33	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Wizardsavg 59¢	$855.24	$782.76	-$72.48	53% 290-259 (549)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Pacersavg 45.3¢	$446.69	$360.26	-$86.44	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
38 38791873984189CTR	Pacersavg 48¢	$112.8	$62.28	-$50.52	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
E5 0xe550...be3fCTR<$100	Pacersavg 31.3¢	$39.69	$46.26	+$6.57	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Pacersavg 48¢	$31.95	$17.64	-$14.31	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pacersavg 48¢	$67.68	$15.9	-$15.33	49% 693-734 (1427)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Wizards

Invested

$2,479.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$350.31

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

FlaznorpCTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,001.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$351.33

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Wizards

Invested

$855.24

Value

$782.76

PnL

-$72.48

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

6512395314597884CTR

Pacers

Invested

$446.69

Value

$360.26

PnL

-$86.44

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

38791873984189CTR

Pacers

Invested

$112.8

Value

$62.28

PnL

-$50.52

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0xe550...be3fCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$39.69

Value

$46.26

PnL

+$6.57

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$31.95

Value

$17.64

PnL

-$14.31

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$67.68

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$15.33

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.