Spread: Wizards (-5.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 50%
$2.4K
-$312.93
78.3¢ → 94¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Pacersavg 81.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$93.9 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
 RN1 | Pacersavg 67.3¢ | $521.93 | $504.58 | +$95.57 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Wizardsavg 19.8¢ | $476.06 | $156.39 | -$319.67 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Pacersavg 62¢ | $19.22 | $25.88 | +$6.66 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 26¢ | $1.49 | $0.69 | -$0.8 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $0.6 | -$0.8 | 31% 412-897 (1309) |
Invested
$1,783.28
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$93.9
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
RN1Invested
$521.93
Value
$504.58
PnL
+$95.57
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$476.06
Value
$156.39
PnL
-$319.67
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$19.22
Value
$25.88
PnL
+$6.66
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$0.8
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.8
Record
31%
412-897 (1309)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.