Spread: Wizards (-11.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (80%) · Pacers at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
5
Pacers 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$10.65
86.9¢ → 78¢
-10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Pacersavg 84¢ | $399.84 | $399.84 | +$0 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
65 6512395314597884 | Pacersavg 90¢ | $360 | $322 | -$38 | 50% 3301-3257 (6558) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Pacersavg 84¢ | $244.16 | $215.2 | +$3.04 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 84¢ | $168 | $160 | -$8 | |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 16¢ | $44.16 | $55.2 | +$11.04 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Wizardsavg 11.9¢ | $78.6 | $132 | +$53.4 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Pacersavg 90¢ | $45 | $40.25 | -$4.75 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Pacersavg 84¢ | $8.76 | $8.76 | -$0 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
Invested
$399.84
Value
$399.84
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$360
Value
$322
PnL
-$38
Record
50%
3301-3257 (6558)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$244.16
Value
$215.2
PnL
+$3.04
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.6
Value
$132
PnL
+$53.4
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$45
Value
$40.25
PnL
-$4.75
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$8.76
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.