Spread: Pistons (-10.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (22%) · Wizards at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Pistons50¢Wizards50¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 22%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$28.51

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons50%

Wizards51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,740

Combined PnL+$23.51

Pistons7 traders

Total Value$632.8

Total Shares1,253

Combined PnL+$5

Wizards — 22%Pistons — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehc	Wizardsavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$23.66	61% 4534-2843 (7377)
IA ianf2026CTR	Pistonsavg 50¢	$318	$321.18	+$3.18	50% 134-136 (270)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pistonsavg 50¢	$185.84	$185.84	+$0	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 48.9¢	$69.27	$70.42	+$1.15	50% 49324-48846 (98170)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 50¢	$81.87	$41.34	+$0.41	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 50¢	$10	$10.1	+$0.1	47% 3609-4021 (7630)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wizardsavg 51.1¢	$4.6	$4.46	-$0.14	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.53	+$0.13	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 49¢	$2.77	$1.4	+$0.04	54% 20342-17178 (37520)

nehcnehc

Wizards

Invested

$2,365.57

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$23.66

Record

61%

4534-2843 (7377)

ianf2026CTR

Pistons

Invested

$318

Value

$321.18

PnL

+$3.18

Record

50%

134-136 (270)

FlaznorpCTR

Pistons

Invested

$185.84

Value

$185.84

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$69.27

Value

$70.42

PnL

+$1.15

Record

50%

49324-48846 (98170)

sentrioCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$81.87

Value

$41.34

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$10

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

3609-4021 (7630)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2.77

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

20342-17178 (37520)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.