Spread: Jazz (-1.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (22%) · Pelicans at 58¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 5

Jazz42¢Pelicans58¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pelicans

Consensus Traders

Pelicans 22%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$136.03

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 58¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz42%

Pelicans58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pelicans2 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,573

Combined PnL+$229.3

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,274

Combined PnL-$93.27

Pelicans — 22%Jazz — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Pelicansavg 59¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$22.6	48% 7141-7832 (14973)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Jazzavg 42.4¢	$950.23	$908.26	-$41.97	61% 2451-1573 (4024)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Jazzavg 61.5¢	$997.15	$812.63	-$184.51	51% 24552-23218 (47770)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 59.7¢	$474.82	$549.16	+$74.34
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 61.5¢	$522.33	$263.48	-$258.85
TA takeormake	Pelicansavg 38.6¢	$588.37	$795.07	+$206.71	53% 4720-4228 (8948)
DI dips.CTR	Jazzavg 43.2¢	$269.25	$232.88	-$17.75	47% 10457-11924 (22381)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 54.8¢	$237.9	$161.92	-$71.96	48% 59829-63853 (123682)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 54.8¢	$167.94	$91.92	-$76.02
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 66¢	$66	$70	+$4.06
RN1CTR	Jazzavg 33¢	$82.5	$101.25	+$18.75	53% 60353-52756 (113109)
PA Pan9XCTR	Jazzavg 75¢	$102.94	$47.94	-$48.89	50% 4211-4243 (8454)
US User7429CTR<$100	Jazzavg 44.4¢	$40.71	$37.15	-$3.56	56% 8993-7188 (16181)
DO DolphinBallerCTR<$100	Jazzavg 34.1¢	$0.94	$1.11	+$0.18	44% 109-137 (246)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jazzavg 42¢	$0.72	$0.7	-$0.03	53% 22918-20103 (43021)

Gaditima

Pelicans

Invested

$2,792.64

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$22.6

Record

48%

7141-7832 (14973)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Jazz

Invested

$950.23

Value

$908.26

PnL

-$41.97

Record

61%

2451-1573 (4024)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$997.15

Value

$812.63

PnL

-$184.51

Record

51%

24552-23218 (47770)

Both legs:

Pelicans$474.8259.7¢+$74.34

Jazz$522.3361.5¢-$258.85

takeormake

Pelicans

Invested

$588.37

Value

$795.07

PnL

+$206.71

Record

53%

4720-4228 (8948)

dips.CTR

Jazz

Invested

$269.25

Value

$232.88

PnL

-$17.75

Record

47%

10457-11924 (22381)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$237.9

Value

$161.92

PnL

-$71.96

Record

48%

59829-63853 (123682)

Both legs:

Jazz$167.9454.8¢-$76.02

Pelicans$6666¢+$4.06

RN1CTR

Jazz

Invested

$82.5

Value

$101.25

PnL

+$18.75

Record

53%

60353-52756 (113109)

Pan9XCTR

Jazz

Invested

$102.94

Value

$47.94

PnL

-$48.89

Record

50%

4211-4243 (8454)

User7429CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$40.71

Value

$37.15

PnL

-$3.56

Record

56%

8993-7188 (16181)

DolphinBallerCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$0.94

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.18

Record

44%

109-137 (246)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

22918-20103 (43021)

Research grade

AvoidPelicans at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pelicans

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pelicans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.