Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Over28¢Under72¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$27.84

Smart Money Entry

68.6¢ → 71.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,639

Combined PnL+$70.99

Over4 traders

Total Value$376.91

Total Shares1,371

Combined PnL-$98.83

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 69.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$19	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
RN1	Underavg 69.9¢	$900.91	$888.35	-$12.55	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 67¢	$764.55	$826.25	+$61.7	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 33¢	$380.16	$288	-$92.16	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 67¢	$115.42	$117.75	+$2.33	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67¢	$76.38	$86.64	+$10.26
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.1¢	$39.04	$31.11	-$7.93
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 57¢	$49.02	$51.17	+$2.15	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$45.3	$39.84	-$5.46	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$30.29	$29.33	-$0.96	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$19.98	$19.74	-$0.24	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 55¢	$5.52	$6.13	+$0.62	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 55¢	$4.6	$4.67	+$0.07	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,207.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$19

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

RN1

Under

Invested

$900.91

Value

$888.35

PnL

-$12.55

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$764.55

Value

$826.25

PnL

+$61.7

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$380.16

Value

$288

PnL

-$92.16

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$115.42

Value

$117.75

PnL

+$2.33

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Under$76.3867¢+$10.26

Over$39.0430.1¢-$7.93

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$49.02

Value

$51.17

PnL

+$2.15

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.3

Value

$39.84

PnL

-$5.46

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.29

Value

$29.33

PnL

-$0.96

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$0.24

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$5.52

Value

$6.13

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.67

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.