Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Timberwolves (59%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (70%) · Jazz at 42¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 9

Timberwolves59¢Jazz41¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 70%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 41.5¢

-20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 59%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves59%

Jazz42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares16,456

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$528.44

Total Shares1,073

Combined PnL-$57.94

Jazz — 70%Timberwolves — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jazzavg 52.5¢	$6.3K	$5.0K	$-1.3K	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jazzavg 53¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$413.89	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jazzavg 42.8¢	$853.33	$867.58	+$14.24	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 42.8¢	$651.06	$646.05	-$5.01
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 52.5¢	$202.28	$221.53	+$19.25
RN1ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 54.4¢	$761.28	$747.22	-$14.06	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 54.4¢	$402.03	$432.54	+$30.51
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47.4¢	$359.25	$314.67	-$44.57
AN Anon455	Timberwolvesavg 56¢	$280	$232.5	-$47.5	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 56.2¢	$236.61	$230.78	-$5.83	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 56.2¢	$137.91	$143.63	+$5.72
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47¢	$98.7	$87.15	-$11.55
PU purplegatto	Timberwolvesavg 55.1¢	$216.99	$218.55	+$1.56	49% 6675-6873 (13548)
GC GC-PCTR	Jazzavg 43¢	$150.5	$150.5	+$0	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
NM NM-PCTR	Jazzavg 43¢	$150.5	$148.75	-$1.75	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$130.34	$128.56	-$1.78	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 46¢	$88.94	$87.98	-$2.9
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 54¢	$40.21	$40.58	+$1.12
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Jazzavg 42¢	$102.77	$108.9	+$6.13	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 42¢	$75.55	$74.65	-$0.9
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 46.5¢	$27.22	$34.25	+$7.03
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$90	$83	-$7	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 56.6¢	$79.36	$81.08	+$1.71	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 56.6¢	$58.78	$60.74	+$1.96
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 42¢	$20.58	$20.33	-$0.25
PA Pan9X	Timberwolvesavg 52.6¢	$101	$77.4	-$12	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Jazzavg 43¢	$29.67	$36.92	+$7.25	47% 150-169 (319)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$2.35	$2.28	-$0.08	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jazz

Invested

$6,315.6

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,907.47

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$413.89

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$853.33

Value

$867.58

PnL

+$14.24

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Jazz$651.0642.8¢-$5.01

Timberwolves$202.2852.5¢+$19.25

RN1ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$761.28

Value

$747.22

PnL

-$14.06

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$402.0354.4¢+$30.51

Jazz$359.2547.4¢-$44.57

Anon455

Timberwolves

Invested

$280

Value

$232.5

PnL

-$47.5

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$236.61

Value

$230.78

PnL

-$5.83

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$137.9156.2¢+$5.72

Jazz$98.747¢-$11.55

purplegatto

Timberwolves

Invested

$216.99

Value

$218.55

PnL

+$1.56

Record

49%

6675-6873 (13548)

GC-PCTR

Jazz

Invested

$150.5

Value

$150.5

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

NM-PCTR

Jazz

Invested

$150.5

Value

$148.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$130.34

Value

$128.56

PnL

-$1.78

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Both legs:

Jazz$88.9446¢-$2.9

Timberwolves$40.2154¢+$1.12

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$102.77

Value

$108.9

PnL

+$6.13

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Jazz$75.5542¢-$0.9

Timberwolves$27.2246.5¢+$7.03

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$90

Value

$83

PnL

-$7

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$79.36

Value

$81.08

PnL

+$1.71

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$58.7856.6¢+$1.96

Jazz$20.5842¢-$0.25

Pan9X

Timberwolves

Invested

$101

Value

$77.4

PnL

-$12

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

biying99999CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$29.67

Value

$36.92

PnL

+$7.25

Record

47%

150-169 (319)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 59%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.