Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 99¢

+89% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares12,675

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares12,810

Combined PnL$-5.5K

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 53¢	$5.5K	$6.4K	+$922.09	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
TA takeormake	Overavg 50.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$247.71	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.8¢	$1.6K	$999.8	-$567.83	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 61.8¢	$698.58	$578.96	-$119.62	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.5¢	$253.38	$304.34	+$50.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.8¢	$445.2	$274.62	-$170.58
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 34¢	$148.54	$172.94	+$24.4	50% 368-373 (741)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$95.96	$107.65	+$11.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.8¢	$52.58	$65.29	+$12.71
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 44¢	$50.31	$99.55	+$49.24	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Underavg 33.8¢	$91.73	$98.82	+$7.09	37% 841-1416 (2257)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.8¢	$54.16	$61.14	+$6.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.7¢	$37.57	$37.69	+$0.12
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Underavg 47¢	$4.4K	$94.63	$-4.4K	49% 517-539 (1056)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$170.65	$36.41	-$3.49	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 19¢	$7.03	$20.72	+$13.69	36% 911-1587 (2498)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 22.3¢	$27.23	$14.1	+$2.47	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 47¢	$8.46	$11.13	+$2.67	44% 422-532 (954)
TO tomb2456CTR	Underavg 47¢	$470	$10	-$460	53% 31-28 (59)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 73¢	$4.5	$2.35	-$2.15	43% 920-1244 (2164)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 17.4¢	$97.1	$1.09	-$89.71	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$48.81	$0.98	-$45.36	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$0.35	$0.39	+$0.03	50% 3689-3644 (7333)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$5,518.73

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$922.09

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,060.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$247.71

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,570.6

Value

$999.8

PnL

-$567.83

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$698.58

Value

$578.96

PnL

-$119.62

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Both legs:

Over$253.3851.5¢+$50.96

Under$445.261.8¢-$170.58

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$148.54

Value

$172.94

PnL

+$24.4

Record

50%

368-373 (741)

Both legs:

Under$95.9634¢+$11.69

Over$52.5849.8¢+$12.71

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$50.31

Value

$99.55

PnL

+$49.24

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Under

Invested

$91.73

Value

$98.82

PnL

+$7.09

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Both legs:

Under$54.1633.8¢+$6.98

Over$37.5761.7¢+$0.12

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Under

Invested

$4,447.57

Value

$94.63

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

49%

517-539 (1056)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$170.65

Value

$36.41

PnL

-$3.49

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$7.03

Value

$20.72

PnL

+$13.69

Record

36%

911-1587 (2498)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.23

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$2.47

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$8.46

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$2.67

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

tomb2456CTR

Under

Invested

$470

Value

$10

PnL

-$460

Record

53%

31-28 (59)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.5

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$2.15

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$97.1

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$89.71

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.81

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$45.36

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.