Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 3.0¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$217.29

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 3¢

-93% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,419

Combined PnL+$709.03

Under9 traders

Total Value$952.49

Total Shares4,194

Combined PnL-$926.31

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52.2¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$661.48	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 55¢	$395.64	$450.95	+$59.51	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
RN1CTR	Underavg 54¢	$731.38	$236.96	-$494.42	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 28.5¢	$556.22	$138.46	-$417.76	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$103.26	$101.33	-$1.93	43% 915-1235 (2150)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Overavg 55¢	$34	$49.76	+$15.76	44% 118-151 (269)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 33¢	$29.09	$45.84	+$16.75	36% 890-1596 (2486)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 33¢	$24	$37.81	+$13.82	36% 910-1584 (2494)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 35.8¢	$57.24	$10.38	-$46.85	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 82¢	$8.08	$9.31	+$1.22	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 34.9¢	$28.95	$5.4	-$23.56	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$4.2	$4.2	+$0	37% 819-1385 (2204)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 67¢	$3.38	$2.42	-$0.96	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.4	-$0.35	49% 1865-1975 (3840)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$1,142.46

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$661.48

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$395.64

Value

$450.95

PnL

+$59.51

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$731.38

Value

$236.96

PnL

-$494.42

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$556.22

Value

$138.46

PnL

-$417.76

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$103.26

Value

$101.33

PnL

-$1.93

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Over

Invested

$34

Value

$49.76

PnL

+$15.76

Record

44%

118-151 (269)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$29.09

Value

$45.84

PnL

+$16.75

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$24

Value

$37.81

PnL

+$13.82

Record

36%

910-1584 (2494)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.24

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$46.85

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$8.08

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$1.22

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.95

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$23.56

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.38

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.96

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2285.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

2385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.