Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$329.98

Smart Money Entry

39.9¢ → 98.1¢

+146% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,841

Combined PnL+$522.55

Under7 traders

Total Value$336.66

Total Shares1,777

Combined PnL-$852.53

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 40¢	$400	$920	+$520	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 39.7¢	$333.85	$336.4	+$2.55	45% 224-272 (496)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$647.14	$260.18	-$385.76	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$30.72	-$173.66	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
RN1CTR	Underavg 57¢	$121.76	$24.81	-$54.39	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 45.8¢	$253.05	$12.96	-$210.49	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 24.6¢	$18.95	$5.86	-$13.1	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$9.47	$1.85	-$1.68	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$13.74	$0.29	-$13.45	49% 1865-1975 (3840)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$920

PnL

+$520

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$333.85

Value

$336.4

PnL

+$2.55

Record

45%

224-272 (496)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$647.14

Value

$260.18

PnL

-$385.76

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$1,102.46

Value

$30.72

PnL

-$173.66

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$121.76

Value

$24.81

PnL

-$54.39

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$253.05

Value

$12.96

PnL

-$210.49

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.95

Value

$5.86

PnL

-$13.1

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.47

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$1.68

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.74

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$13.45

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.